TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13106201
Played Sep 10Finished
Jan Krames Sr
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412119911115––
Lukas Svoboda
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeJan Krames Sr to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krames Sr above · Lukas Svoboda below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 82 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jan Krames Sr at 56.6%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krames Sr 28–24 Lukas Svoboda Lukas Svoboda has won 24 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:34What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-24 in 52
Sr
Correct
gap of 4 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sr 1783 vs Svoboda 1671
Sr
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sr 100% vs Svoboda 40%
Sr
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sr 80% vs Svoboda 60%
Sr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sr +5 · Svoboda +1
Sr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Sr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sr form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSr 1.67 / Svoboda 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Sr)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13106201
Sr1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 123 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it91% 69 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it79% 102 of 130
Svoboda2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 16 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back26% 5 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSr7wins
AwaySvoboda3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSr leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSr100%6 of 6
AwaySvoboda75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sr6Svoboda4n = 10Sr took 6 of 10
S2Sr6Svoboda4n = 10Sr took 6 of 10
S3Sr6Svoboda4n = 10Sr took 6 of 10
S4Sr4Svoboda3n = 7Sr took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSrSvobodaSr − SvobodaBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.335.4+3.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime392 / 704 vs 70 / 15555.7%45.2%392 / 704 vs 70 / 155Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrSr 1.67/Svoboda 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Sr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 4 · 14:45J. Sr—51111101L. Svoboda—11132123
WJul 15 · 17:45J. Sr—121313113L. Svoboda—14111161
WJul 12 · 14:45J. Sr—1111113L. Svoboda—9980
LAug 31 · 09:15J. Sr—441751L. Svoboda—111115113
WAug 30 · 06:15J. Sr—111112113L. Svoboda—641441
WAug 24 · 17:15J. Sr—11117143L. Svoboda—2511121
WAug 23 · 20:12J. Sr—111187113L. Svoboda—87111172
WAug 23 · 18:45J. Sr—1413113L. Svoboda—121180
WAug 17 · 08:15J. Sr—111111123L. Svoboda—3137101
LAug 17 · 06:15J. Sr—61090L. Svoboda—1112113
J. Sr10
WSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481WSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113WSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:45J. Senk2.755820J. Sr1.401111113LSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113WSep 4 · 20:53J. Sr1.7311118113D. Gasparovic2.00761121LSep 4 · 19:45J. Sr1.9111117662V. Burylov1.80531111113
L. Svoboda10
LSep 10 · 14:15S. Rejent1.91111285133L. Svoboda1.809101111112WSep 9 · 12:19L. Dobias1.5381410131L. Svoboda2.38111212153LSep 9 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.80114471M. Stibor1.9161111113LSep 9 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.25107111182M. Zelinka1.57121196113LSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123WAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 15:15L. Svoboda1.5791111113O. Mezera2.25119561WAug 31 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.8312116123A. Radkovsky1.8310511101WAug 31 · 13:15L. Svoboda1.611111113V. Grubr2.207780LAug 15 · 08:50L. Svoboda2.38129771J. Chalupa1.53101111113
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