TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084056
Played Sep 6Finished
Ondrej Mezera
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191214411611––
Jan Krames Sr
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:53 and never touched — 69.6% is still 69.6%
Graded at full timeJan Krames Sr to win
69.6%
69.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Jan Krames Sr below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 78 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jan Krames Sr at 69.6%
78 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 2–4 Jan Krames Sr Ondrej Mezera has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:53What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Sr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Sr
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1619 vs Sr 1759
Sr
Correct
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 60% vs Sr 80%
Sr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 40% vs Sr 80%
Sr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera -2 · Sr +3
Sr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Sr) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mezera form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 2.75 / Sr 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Sr)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13084056
Mezera2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 118 of 255
Down 0–1, comes back32% 47 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back17% 13 of 77
Sr1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite57% won 121 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it90% 66 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it78% 101 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMezera2wins
AwaySr4wins
4 of 6 to a deciderSr leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezera66.7%2 of 3
AwaySr100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera3Sr3n = 6split evenly
S2Mezera3Sr3n = 6split evenly
S3Mezera2Sr4n = 6Sr took 4 of 6
S4Mezera1Sr4n = 5Sr took 4 of 5
S5Mezera2Sr2n = 4split evenly
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricMezeraSrM − SBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match36.346.0−9.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraSrBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 817 vs 390 / 70250.3%55.6%411 / 817 vs 390 / 702Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.840.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrMezera 2.75/Sr 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.3%
Sr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera—1112461J. Sr—91411113
LSep 5 · 20:44O. Mezera—1440J. Sr—1111113
WSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera—121476123J. Sr—10121111102
LSep 3 · 16:18O. Mezera—31111552J. Sr—116911113
WSep 3 · 14:45O. Mezera—118812113J. Sr—511111092
LJul 29 · 15:15O. Mezera—41111772J. Sr—118911113
O. Mezera10
LSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113LSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:45O. Mezera2.00115811113J. Senk1.7341111862LSep 3 · 16:18O. Mezera2.7531111552J. Sr1.40116911113LSep 3 · 15:45S. Rejent1.531191111113O. Mezera2.3891141342WSep 3 · 14:45J. Sr1.57511111092O. Mezera2.25118812113
J. Sr10
WSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481WSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:45J. Senk2.755820J. Sr1.401111113LSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113WSep 4 · 20:53J. Sr1.7311118113D. Gasparovic2.00761121WSep 3 · 16:18O. Mezera2.7531111552J. Sr1.40116911113LSep 3 · 14:45J. Sr1.57511111092O. Mezera2.25118812113
Upcoming Matches
O. Mezera
J. Sr
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