TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084322
Played Sep 6Finished
Ondrej Mezera
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911911––––
Martin Kocvara
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:59 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Kocvara to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Martin Kocvara below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 59 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Martin Kocvara at 54.9%
59 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 4–6 Martin Kocvara Ondrej Mezera has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kocvara
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Kocvara
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1637 vs Kocvara 1743
Kocvara
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 60% vs Kocvara 80%
Kocvara
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 50% vs Kocvara 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera -1 · Kocvara -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kocvara) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocvara form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 2.20 / Kocvara 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kocvara)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084322
Mezera2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 118 of 255
Down 0–1, comes back32% 47 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back17% 13 of 77
Kocvara1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 27 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it73% 22 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMezera4wins
AwayKocvara6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKocvara leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezera50%2 of 4
AwayKocvara66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera4Kocvara6n = 10Kocvara took 6 of 10
S2Mezera5Kocvara5n = 10split evenly
S3Mezera4Kocvara6n = 10Kocvara took 6 of 10
S4Mezera5Kocvara2n = 7Mezera took 5 of 7
S5Mezera1Kocvara3n = 4Kocvara took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMezeraKocvaraM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.642.4−3.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraKocvaraBasisWin rate · lifetime415 / 819 vs 76 / 13250.7%57.6%415 / 819 vs 76 / 132Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocvaraMezera 2.20/Kocvara 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Kocvara · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kocvara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 08:18O. Mezera—1211113M. Kocvara—10870
WAug 15 · 05:45O. Mezera—12117133M. Kocvara—10611111
LJul 25 · 12:53O. Mezera—11730M. Kocvara—1311113
LJul 25 · 09:15O. Mezera—1161011112M. Kocvara—811127133
LJul 8 · 16:13O. Mezera—913811122M. Kocvara—1111114143
WJul 8 · 13:15O. Mezera—812137133M. Kocvara—11101111112
LJun 27 · 12:13O. Mezera—961471M. Kocvara—111112113
LJun 27 · 11:15O. Mezera—11071172M. Kocvara—711119113
WJun 26 · 16:18O. Mezera—61114143M. Kocvara—11812121
LJun 26 · 15:15O. Mezera—7540M. Kocvara—1111113
O. Mezera10
LSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113LSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113LSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:45O. Mezera2.00115811113J. Senk1.7341111862LSep 3 · 16:18O. Mezera2.7531111552J. Sr1.40116911113LSep 3 · 15:45S. Rejent1.531191111113O. Mezera2.3891141342WSep 3 · 14:45J. Sr1.57511111092O. Mezera2.25118812113
M. Kocvara10
WSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481LSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480LSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113LSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113LSep 1 · 06:15M. Kocvara2.75115561L. Heinzl1.4091111113
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