TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084448
Played Sep 6Finished
Jan Krames Sr
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171161214118––
Martin Kocvara
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeJan Krames Sr to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krames Sr above · Martin Kocvara below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 80 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Krames Sr at 62.9%
80 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krames Sr 2–4 Martin Kocvara Jan Krames Sr has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:29What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Sr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Kocvara
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sr 1770 vs Kocvara 1703
Sr
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sr 80% vs Kocvara 60%
Sr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sr 80% vs Kocvara 50%
Sr
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sr +4 · Kocvara -1
Sr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Sr) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocvara form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSr 1.40 / Kocvara 2.75
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Sr)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13084448
Sr1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 121 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it90% 66 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it78% 101 of 129
Kocvara2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog57% won 49 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back49% 21 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back28% 5 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSr2wins
AwayKocvara4wins
4 of 6 to a deciderKocvara leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSr40%2 of 5
AwayKocvaran = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sr5Kocvara1n = 6Sr took 5 of 6
S2Sr5Kocvara1n = 6Sr took 5 of 6
S3Sr1Kocvara5n = 6Kocvara took 5 of 6
S4Sr3Kocvara3n = 6split evenly
S5Sr0Kocvara4n = 4Kocvara took 4 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away467%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSrKocvaraS − KBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match43.343.7−0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrKocvaraBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 703 vs 77 / 13555.6%57%391 / 703 vs 77 / 135Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrSr 1.40/Kocvara 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.1%
Sr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr—111112113M. Kocvara—761481
LAug 30 · 19:15J. Sr—11114642M. Kocvara—59111193
LAug 18 · 09:15J. Sr—57111182M. Kocvara—111199113
LJul 18 · 20:58J. Sr—1111810112M. Kocvara—641112133
LJul 18 · 18:45J. Sr—11116972M. Kocvara—871111113
WJun 9 · 18:00J. Sr—11119113M. Kocvara—991181
J. Sr10
WSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113WSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:45J. Senk2.755820J. Sr1.401111113LSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113WSep 4 · 20:53J. Sr1.7311118113D. Gasparovic2.00761121LSep 4 · 19:45J. Sr1.9111117662V. Burylov1.80531111113WSep 4 · 18:15A. Snr1.8361151152J. Sr1.83117117113
M. Kocvara10
WSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480WSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113LSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113LSep 1 · 06:15M. Kocvara2.75115561L. Heinzl1.4091111113
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