TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073993
Played Sep 4Finished
Ales Brandtl Snr
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611117511117511
Jan Krames Sr
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Krames Sr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Brandtl Snr above · Jan Krames Sr below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 85 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Jan Krames Sr at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Snr 1–4 Jan Krames Sr Ales Brandtl Snr has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:04What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Sr
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1626 vs Sr 1642
Sr
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 60% vs Sr 40%
Snr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 50% vs Sr 30%
Snr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr +2 · Sr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sr form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.83 / Sr 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sr)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13073993
Snr1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Sr1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSnr1wins
AwaySr4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderSr leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnr33.3%1 of 3
AwaySrn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr3Sr2n = 5Snr took 3 of 5
S2Snr0Sr5n = 5Sr took 5 of 5
S3Snr3Sr2n = 5Snr took 3 of 5
S4Snr3Sr2n = 5Snr took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSnrSrSnr − SrBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match42.845.8−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrSrBasisWin rate · lifetime10 / 28 vs 384 / 69735.7%55.1%10 / 28 vs 384 / 697Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrSnr 1.83/Sr 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 18 · 19:45A. Snr—95111682J. Sr—1111314113
WJul 10 · 17:45A. Snr—11311113J. Sr—611931
LJun 23 · 16:23A. Snr—1181421J. Sr—41116113
LJun 23 · 13:45A. Snr—77161142J. Sr—1111148113
LJun 16 · 17:45A. Snr—11919101J. Sr—91121123
A. Snr10
LSep 4 · 20:23V. Burylov1.7311911113A. Snr2.00611891LSep 4 · 19:15A. Snr2.50751191D. Gasparovic1.5011117113WSep 3 · 20:14R. Pisa2.008250A. Snr1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:15M. Vyskocil1.83691111102A. Snr1.83111188123LSep 3 · 18:45A. Snr1.571011731R. Pisa2.2512611113LSep 3 · 17:45A. Snr1.83119561T. Liska1.8371111113WJul 18 · 20:28A. Snr1.381111163S. Rejent2.8048140LJul 18 · 19:45A. Snr1.8395111682J. Sr1.831111314113WJul 18 · 18:15S. Rejent3.25111312892A. Snr1.3313111011113LJul 18 · 17:45M. Kocvara2.0091211113A. Snr1.731110951
J. Sr10
WSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481WSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113WSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:45J. Senk2.755820J. Sr1.401111113LSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113WSep 4 · 20:53J. Sr1.7311118113D. Gasparovic2.00761121WJul 18 · 19:45A. Snr1.8395111682J. Sr1.831111314113
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