TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13087459
Played Sep 6Finished
Jan Krames Sr
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311117116––––
Lukas Adam
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingJan Krames Sr above · Lukas Adam below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 59 set 3, 11-6
59 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krames Sr 12–10 Lukas Adam Lukas Adam has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Sr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSr 1.61 / Adam 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Sr)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13087459
Sr1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 121 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it90% 66 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it78% 101 of 129
Adam2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 57 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSr5wins
AwayAdam5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSr100%5 of 5
AwayAdam100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sr5Adam5n = 10split evenly
S2Sr4Adam6n = 10Adam took 6 of 10
S3Sr4Adam6n = 10Adam took 6 of 10
S4Sr5Adam1n = 6Sr took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSrAdamS − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.933.9−1.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 703 vs 283 / 55055.6%51.5%391 / 703 vs 283 / 550Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.740.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrSr 1.61/Adam 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Sr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 15:45J. Sr—46120L. Adam—1111143
WMay 23 · 20:49J. Sr—11611123L. Adam—8116101
LMay 23 · 19:45J. Sr—125100L. Adam—1411123
WApr 10 · 19:00J. Sr—11117123L. Adam—6711101
WMar 24 · 20:15J. Sr—1211113L. Adam—10270
LMar 23 · 21:43J. Sr—651131L. Adam—11113113
WMar 23 · 20:45J. Sr—11114113L. Adam—951181
WMar 5 · 16:45J. Sr—11511113L. Adam—511471
LFeb 25 · 14:45J. Sr—81161172L. Adam—117119113
LJan 8 · 16:30J. Sr—9760L. Adam—1111113
J. Sr10
WSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481WSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113WSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:45J. Senk2.755820J. Sr1.401111113LSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113WSep 4 · 20:53J. Sr1.7311118113D. Gasparovic2.00761121LSep 4 · 19:45J. Sr1.9111117662V. Burylov1.80531111113WSep 4 · 18:15A. Snr1.8361151152J. Sr1.83117117113
L. Adam10
WSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113WSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480LSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 09:30V. Burylov1.801141151L. Adam1.9181113113WSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772WSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791
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