TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088822
Played Sep 7Finished
Lukas Adam
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012611119611––
Radovan Pisa
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:38 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Adam to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Adam above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 76 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Lukas Adam at 62.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 25–19 Radovan Pisa Radovan Pisa has won 19 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Adam
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-19 in 44
Adam
Wrong
gap of 6 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1757 vs Pisa 1694
Adam
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 60% vs Pisa 40%
Adam
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 70% vs Pisa 50%
Adam
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam +1 · Pisa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Adam) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 1.50 / Pisa 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Adam)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13088822
Adam1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 68 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it89% 49 of 55
Pisa2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 91 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back28% 31 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdam7wins
AwayPisa3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderAdam leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdam80%4 of 5
AwayPisa40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam5Pisa5n = 10split evenly
S2Adam7Pisa3n = 10Adam took 7 of 10
S3Adam6Pisa4n = 10Adam took 6 of 10
S4Adam5Pisa0n = 5Adam took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamPisaA − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.831.2+3.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime284 / 552 vs 382 / 78851.5%48.5%284 / 552 vs 382 / 788Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamAdam 1.50/Pisa 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 07:00L. Adam—56100R. Pisa—1111123
WAug 11 · 05:45L. Adam—11117113R. Pisa—771191
WAug 10 · 11:15L. Adam—1111113R. Pisa—7760
WJul 23 · 07:45L. Adam—51111113R. Pisa—116681
WJun 24 · 05:30L. Adam—1111123R. Pisa—78100
LJun 10 · 05:45L. Adam—111131182R. Pisa—913114113
WJun 3 · 07:00L. Adam—71111113R. Pisa—118731
WJun 1 · 09:45L. Adam—91111113R. Pisa—115791
LMay 12 · 08:44L. Adam—46100R. Pisa—1111123
WMay 12 · 07:45L. Adam—1411113R. Pisa—12850
L. Adam10
LSep 7 · 11:15A. Radkovsky2.00145611143L. Adam1.731211118122WSep 7 · 09:45L. Adam1.671113113M. Vyskocil2.1061180LSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113WSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480LSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 09:30V. Burylov1.801141151L. Adam1.9181113113
R. Pisa10
LSep 7 · 11:45M. Vyskocil1.671081111123R. Pisa2.10121167102WSep 7 · 09:15A. Radkovsky1.9167111352R. Pisa1.801111711113LSep 3 · 20:14R. Pisa2.008250A. Snr1.731111113LSep 3 · 19:45T. Liska2.201111113R. Pisa1.617990WSep 3 · 18:45A. Snr1.571011731R. Pisa2.2512611113LSep 3 · 17:15M. Vyskocil1.8091112113R. Pisa1.911131011WSep 2 · 20:48R. Pisa1.8311129113M. Ullman1.833101191WSep 2 · 19:45R. Pisa1.7311118113J. Dolezal2.00381181LSep 2 · 18:15M. Ullman1.831191112113R. Pisa1.8391161462WSep 2 · 17:45S. Rejent1.83118571R. Pisa1.8361111113
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