TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13077434
Played Sep 4Finished
Lukas Adam
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117114118––––
Martin Kocvara
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
How it is goingLukas Adam above · Martin Kocvara below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 52 set 3, 11-8
52 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 1–3 Martin Kocvara Lukas Adam has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kocvara)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocvara form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 2.20 / Kocvara 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kocvara)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13077434
Adam2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 55 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Kocvara1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 25 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeAdam1wins
AwayKocvara3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKocvara leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKocvara100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam1Kocvara3n = 4Kocvara took 3 of 4
S2Adam2Kocvara2n = 4split evenly
S3Adam3Kocvara1n = 4Adam took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricAdamKocvaraA − KBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match33.035.0−2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamKocvaraBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 546 vs 76 / 13151.3%58%280 / 546 vs 76 / 131Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocvaraAdam 2.20/Kocvara 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Kocvara · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 4 · 11:00L. Adam—31111742M. Kocvara—115211113
WAug 10 · 12:18L. Adam—1111133M. Kocvara—84110
LAug 10 · 10:15L. Adam—7812101M. Kocvara—111110123
LJun 18 · 06:45L. Adam—9870M. Kocvara—1111113
L. Adam10
LSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113WSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480LSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 09:30V. Burylov1.801141151L. Adam1.9181113113WSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772WSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791
M. Kocvara10
WSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481LSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480WSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113WSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113LSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113LSep 1 · 06:15M. Kocvara2.75115561L. Heinzl1.4091111113
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