TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067179
Played Sep 3Finished
Lukas Adam
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1195111214117117
Michal Makara
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Adam to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingLukas Adam above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 98 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Lukas Adam at 54.1%
98 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 23–15 Michal Makara Michal Makara has won 15 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:39What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Adam
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-15 in 38
Adam
Correct
gap of 8 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1693 vs Makara 1675
Adam
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 40% vs Makara 20%
Adam
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 30% vs Makara 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam +1 · Makara -3
Makara
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adam)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 1.73 / Makara 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adam)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067179
Adam1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 64 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it88% 45 of 51
Makara2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog46% won 174 of 378
Down 0–1, comes back25% 49 of 193
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdam7wins
AwayMakara3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderAdam leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdam100%6 of 6
AwayMakara75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam6Makara4n = 10Adam took 6 of 10
S2Adam5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S3Adam2Makara8n = 10Makara took 8 of 10
S4Adam5Makara3n = 8Adam took 5 of 8
S5Adam4Makara0n = 4Adam took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamMakaraA − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.442.5−0.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 541 vs 495 / 102951%48.1%276 / 541 vs 495 / 1029Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamAdam 1.73/Makara 2.00
Hit
What we said
54.1%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 12:43L. Adam—1061131M. Makara—12119113
WAug 19 · 11:45L. Adam—111110113M. Makara—371281
WJun 24 · 06:30L. Adam—11131115113M. Makara—91591792
WJun 19 · 14:00L. Adam—11136163M. Makara—51111141
WJun 12 · 09:45L. Adam—13117113M. Makara—1151161
WJun 3 · 08:00L. Adam—111396113M. Makara—411111192
LMay 27 · 07:45L. Adam—13290M. Makara—1511113
WMay 18 · 12:44L. Adam—1112411113M. Makara—71411992
LMay 18 · 09:15L. Adam—61060M. Makara—1112113
WMay 4 · 15:15L. Adam—1311616113M. Makara—156111462
L. Adam10
LSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113WSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480LSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 09:30V. Burylov1.801141151L. Adam1.9181113113WSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791
M. Makara10
WSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940LSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 10:30V. Burylov1.611171114113M. Makara2.2061171692LSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113LSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113LSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113WSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113LSep 1 · 06:45M. Makara1.8351350V. Burylov1.831115113
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