TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073105
Played Sep 4Finished
Michal Makara
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611511––––
Lukas Adam
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Adam to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingMichal Makara above · Lukas Adam below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 50 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Lukas Adam at 54.1%
50 points played in total.
H2H Michal Makara 16–24 Lukas Adam Michal Makara has won 16 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Adam
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-24 in 40
Adam
Correct
gap of 8 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makara 1657 vs Adam 1718
Adam
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makara 20% vs Adam 80%
Adam
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makara 20% vs Adam 50%
Adam
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Makara -2 · Adam -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Adam) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakara 2.00 / Adam 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Adam)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13073105
Makara2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog46% won 175 of 382
Down 0–1, comes back25% 49 of 196
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 87
Adam1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 65 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it89% 46 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMakara3wins
AwayAdam7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderAdam leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakara100%3 of 3
AwayAdam100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makara3Adam7n = 10Adam took 7 of 10
S2Makara5Adam5n = 10split evenly
S3Makara7Adam3n = 10Makara took 7 of 10
S4Makara4Adam5n = 9Adam took 5 of 9
S5Makara1Adam4n = 5Adam took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMakaraAdamM − ABasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.243.9−0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakaraAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 1033 vs 279 / 54548%51.2%496 / 1033 vs 279 / 545Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamMakara 2.00/Adam 1.73
Hit
What we said
54.9%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 07:15M. Makara—91114772L. Adam—1151211113
WAug 28 · 05:30M. Makara—119311113L. Adam—51111892
WAug 19 · 12:43M. Makara—12119113L. Adam—1061131
LAug 19 · 11:45M. Makara—371281L. Adam—111110113
LJun 24 · 06:30M. Makara—91591792L. Adam—11131115113
LJun 19 · 14:00M. Makara—51111141L. Adam—11136163
LJun 12 · 09:45M. Makara—1151161L. Adam—13117113
LJun 3 · 08:00M. Makara—411111192L. Adam—111396113
WMay 27 · 07:45M. Makara—1511113L. Adam—13290
LMay 18 · 12:44M. Makara—71411992L. Adam—1112411113
M. Makara10
WSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940LSep 4 · 10:30V. Burylov1.611171114113M. Makara2.2061171692LSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772LSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113LSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113LSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113WSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113LSep 1 · 06:45M. Makara1.8351350V. Burylov1.831115113
L. Adam10
LSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113WSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480LSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 09:30V. Burylov1.801141151L. Adam1.9181113113WSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772WSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791
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