TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067638
Played Sep 3Finished
Lukas Adam
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911113117119––
Lukas Heinzl
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:28 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingLukas Adam above · Lukas Heinzl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 54.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 21–34 Lukas Heinzl Lukas Adam has won 21 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:28What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Heinzl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-34 in 55
Heinzl
Wrong
gap of 13 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1678 vs Heinzl 1769
Heinzl
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 20% vs Heinzl 80%
Heinzl
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 20% vs Heinzl 80%
Heinzl
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam -3 · Heinzl +2
Adam
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Heinzl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heinzl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 2.00 / Heinzl 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Heinzl)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13067638
Adam2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 53 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Heinzl1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 158 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it95% 74 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it77% 115 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdam3wins
AwayHeinzl7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdam75%3 of 4
AwayHeinzl100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam4Heinzl6n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S2Adam4Heinzl6n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S3Adam4Heinzl6n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S4Adam3Heinzl3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamHeinzlA − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.038.4−2.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamHeinzlBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 540 vs 355 / 64650.9%55%275 / 540 vs 355 / 646Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlAdam 2.00/Heinzl 1.73
Miss
What we said
54.9%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 06:45L. Adam—8960L. Heinzl—1111113
LAug 28 · 08:58L. Adam—551181L. Heinzl—11114113
WAug 28 · 08:00L. Adam—1211113L. Heinzl—10890
LJul 29 · 05:45L. Adam—1111811212L. Heinzl—137117233
LJul 22 · 07:45L. Adam—1191111132L. Heinzl—511513153
WJun 23 · 11:30L. Adam—11116113L. Heinzl—881161
LJun 15 · 12:00L. Adam—77120L. Heinzl—1111143
LJun 10 · 07:45L. Adam—7770L. Heinzl—1111113
WMay 28 · 08:53L. Adam—11712113L. Heinzl—4111081
LMay 28 · 06:15L. Adam—711571L. Heinzl—11911113
L. Adam10
LSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113WSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480LSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 09:30V. Burylov1.801141151L. Adam1.9181113113WSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772
L. Heinzl10
LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121WSep 2 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.731111113L. Adam2.008960WSep 2 · 05:45L. Heinzl1.30111179113O. Mezera3.4069111162
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