TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060617
Played Sep 2Finished
Lukas Heinzl
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116119711911116
Ondrej Mezera
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched — 76.3% is still 76.3%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
76.3%
76.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Ondrej Mezera below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 92 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 76.3%
92 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 5–2 Ondrej Mezera Ondrej Mezera has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:55What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Heinzl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Heinzl
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1755 vs Mezera 1602
Heinzl
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 80% vs Mezera 40%
Heinzl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 50% vs Mezera 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl -1 · Mezera -3
Mezera
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Heinzl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mezera form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.30 / Mezera 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Heinzl)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13060617
Heinzl1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 155 of 262
Up 2–0, closes it95% 71 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it76% 112 of 147
Mezera3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 112 of 244
Down 0–1, comes back32% 45 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back16% 12 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeHeinzl5wins
AwayMezera2wins
3 of 7 to a deciderHeinzl leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl100%5 of 5
AwayMezeran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl5Mezera2n = 7Heinzl took 5 of 7
S2Heinzl4Mezera3n = 7Heinzl took 4 of 7
S3Heinzl3Mezera4n = 7Mezera took 4 of 7
S4Heinzl3Mezera2n = 5Heinzl took 3 of 5
S5Heinzl2Mezera1n = 3Heinzl took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricHeinzlMezeraH − MBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match43.338.9+4.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlMezeraBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 645 vs 413 / 81654.9%50.6%354 / 645 vs 413 / 816Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.30/Mezera 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 2 · 05:45L. Heinzl—111179113O. Mezera—69111162
WAug 10 · 16:29L. Heinzl—1111113O. Mezera—8870
LAug 10 · 15:15L. Heinzl—1111121382O. Mezera—1331411113
LJul 22 · 14:15L. Heinzl—814130O. Mezera—1116153
WJul 10 · 08:53L. Heinzl—11118113O. Mezera—921171
WJul 10 · 06:15L. Heinzl—11611173O. Mezera—6114151
WNov 25 · 08:15L. Heinzl—117115113O. Mezera—81191182
L. Heinzl10
LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121WSep 2 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.731111113L. Adam2.008960
O. Mezera10
LSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113LSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113LSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:45O. Mezera2.00115811113J. Senk1.7341111862LSep 3 · 16:18O. Mezera2.7531111552J. Sr1.40116911113LSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113
Upcoming Matches
L. Heinzl
Nothing scheduled
O. Mezera
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