TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060622
Played Sep 2Finished
Lukas Heinzl
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119116––––
Lukas Adam
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Lukas Adam below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 54.1%
56 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 33–21 Lukas Adam Lukas Adam has won 21 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:04What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Heinzl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-21 in 54
Heinzl
Correct
gap of 12 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1755 vs Adam 1715
Heinzl
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 80% vs Adam 40%
Heinzl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 60% vs Adam 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl +1 · Adam +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Heinzl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heinzl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.73 / Adam 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Heinzl)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13060622
Heinzl1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 155 of 262
Up 2–0, closes it95% 71 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it76% 112 of 147
Adam2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 55 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl6wins
AwayAdam4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl100%5 of 5
AwayAdam80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl5Adam5n = 10split evenly
S2Heinzl6Adam4n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S3Heinzl5Adam5n = 10split evenly
S4Heinzl4Adam3n = 7Heinzl took 4 of 7
S5Heinzl2Adam1n = 3Heinzl took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlAdamH − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.139.3+0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 645 vs 275 / 53754.9%51.2%354 / 645 vs 275 / 537Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.73/Adam 2.00
Hit
What we said
54.1%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 08:58L. Heinzl—11114113L. Adam—551181
LAug 28 · 08:00L. Heinzl—10890L. Adam—1211113
WJul 29 · 05:45L. Heinzl—137117233L. Adam—1111811212
WJul 22 · 07:45L. Heinzl—511513153L. Adam—1191111132
LJun 23 · 11:30L. Heinzl—881161L. Adam—11116113
WJun 15 · 12:00L. Heinzl—1111143L. Adam—77120
WJun 10 · 07:45L. Heinzl—1111113L. Adam—7770
LMay 28 · 08:53L. Heinzl—4111081L. Adam—11712113
WMay 28 · 06:15L. Heinzl—11911113L. Adam—711571
LMay 18 · 11:15L. Heinzl—614101282L. Adam—11121210113
L. Heinzl10
LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121WSep 2 · 05:45L. Heinzl1.30111179113O. Mezera3.4069111162
L. Adam10
LSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113WSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480LSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 09:30V. Burylov1.801141151L. Adam1.9181113113WSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791
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