TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088678
Played Sep 7Finished
Lukas Veigl
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171181113116––
Lukas Heinzl
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:15 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Veigl above · Lukas Heinzl below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 78 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 63.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Veigl 10–19 Lukas Heinzl Lukas Veigl has won 10 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Heinzl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-19 in 29
Heinzl
Wrong
gap of 9 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Veigl 1676 vs Heinzl 1727
Heinzl
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Veigl 60% vs Heinzl 40%
Veigl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Veigl 50% vs Heinzl 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Veigl +1 · Heinzl -3
Heinzl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Heinzl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heinzl form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeigl 2.50 / Heinzl 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Heinzl)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13088678
Veigl2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 35 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back17% 9 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Heinzl1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 159 of 268
Up 2–0, closes it95% 75 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it76% 116 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVeigl2wins
AwayHeinzl8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeigl50%2 of 4
AwayHeinzl100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Veigl4Heinzl6n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S2Veigl4Heinzl6n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S3Veigl3Heinzl7n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S4Veigl1Heinzl4n = 5Heinzl took 4 of 5
S5Veigl1Heinzl3n = 4Heinzl took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeiglHeinzlV − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.739.2−6.5per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeiglHeinzlBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 527 vs 355 / 64852%54.8%274 / 527 vs 355 / 648Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlVeigl 2.50/Heinzl 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Veigl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 22 · 13:45L. Veigl—116111072L. Heinzl—811912113
LJun 27 · 20:49L. Veigl—10970L. Heinzl—1211113
LJun 27 · 17:45L. Veigl—3790L. Heinzl—1111113
LJun 22 · 18:15L. Veigl—11761172L. Heinzl—811119113
LMay 11 · 07:30L. Veigl—6190L. Heinzl—1111113
WApr 18 · 17:45L. Veigl—1112113L. Heinzl—81080
LApr 15 · 20:30L. Veigl—61111872L. Heinzl—117511113
LApr 15 · 18:45L. Veigl—114110L. Heinzl—1311133
LMar 29 · 20:28L. Veigl—413871L. Heinzl—111111113
WMar 29 · 19:30L. Veigl—111174113L. Heinzl—76111142
L. Veigl10
WSep 5 · 20:13J. Senk2.10411491L. Veigl1.6711711113LSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:15L. Veigl1.801111113J. Senk1.917890LSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113WSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WSep 5 · 07:45L. Veigl2.10311811113J. Chalupa1.6711911982WSep 5 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.50811881L. Veigl2.5011911113LSep 5 · 05:45D. Gasparovic1.361111113L. Veigl3.003930LJul 31 · 08:44O. Kaderabek2.1061111113L. Veigl1.67119881LJul 31 · 07:15L. Veigl2.20711161032L. Dobias1.611131412113
L. Heinzl10
WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121WSep 2 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.731111113L. Adam2.008960WSep 2 · 05:45L. Heinzl1.30111179113O. Mezera3.4069111162LSep 1 · 08:49V. Burylov1.8391111113L. Heinzl1.83116841
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