TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12333802
Played Jul 31Finished
Lukas Veigl
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
71111316141012311
Ladislav Dobias
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:26 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Veigl above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 98 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 60.7%
98 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Veigl 9–13 Ladislav Dobias Lukas Veigl has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:26What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-13 in 22
Dobias
Correct
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Veigl 1694 vs Dobias 1739
Dobias
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Veigl 80% vs Dobias 20%
Veigl
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Veigl 70% vs Dobias 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Veigl +4 · Dobias -2
Veigl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Dobias) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeigl 2.20 / Dobias 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Dobias)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12333802
Veigl2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 42 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Dobias1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 204 of 356
Up 2–0, closes it91% 59 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it78% 138 of 178
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVeigl4wins
AwayDobias6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeigl50%3 of 6
AwayDobias75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Veigl6Dobias4n = 10Veigl took 6 of 10
S2Veigl5Dobias5n = 10split evenly
S3Veigl4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S4Veigl4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S5Veigl3Dobias4n = 7Dobias took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeiglDobiasV − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.346.7−1.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeiglDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 575 vs 362 / 65551.1%55.3%294 / 575 vs 362 / 655Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.541.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasVeigl 2.20/Dobias 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.7%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 31 · 07:15L. Veigl—711161032L. Dobias—1131412113
WJul 22 · 07:00L. Veigl—1310911113L. Dobias—111211892
LJul 21 · 06:45L. Veigl—11741152L. Dobias—911117113
WJul 13 · 10:45L. Veigl—911119113L. Dobias—11481132
LJul 10 · 12:43L. Veigl—119671L. Dobias—91111113
WJul 10 · 10:45L. Veigl—1110811133L. Dobias—712118112
LMay 10 · 20:14L. Veigl—51115972L. Dobias—1131311113
WMay 10 · 19:15L. Veigl—11139113L. Dobias—9111181
LMay 10 · 09:45L. Veigl—514891L. Dobias—111211113
LMay 4 · 07:45L. Veigl—111511762L. Dobias—917711113
L. Veigl10
WSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951WSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361WSep 5 · 20:13J. Senk2.10411491L. Veigl1.6711711113LSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:15L. Veigl1.801111113J. Senk1.917890LSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113WSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WSep 5 · 07:45L. Veigl2.10311811113J. Chalupa1.6711911982WSep 5 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.50811881L. Veigl2.5011911113LSep 5 · 05:45D. Gasparovic1.361111113L. Veigl3.003930
L. Dobias10
LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681LAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka2.1081111123L. Dobias1.671194101WAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062LAug 26 · 11:45L. Heinzl2.251213113L. Dobias1.57101190WAug 26 · 10:45M. Kocvara2.5031111982L. Dobias1.50119611113WAug 26 · 09:15P. Wasik1.808880L. Dobias1.911111113WAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.1061111532L. Dobias1.67113811113LAug 25 · 07:45L. Dobias1.61111091152M. Zelinka2.20912113113
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