TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015215
Played Aug 26Finished
Lukas Heinzl
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101311119––––
Ladislav Dobias
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 66 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 59.9%
66 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 28–44 Ladislav Dobias Lukas Heinzl has won 28 of their 72 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dobias
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-44 in 72
Dobias
Wrong
gap of 16 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1765 vs Dobias 1808
Dobias
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 60% vs Dobias 80%
Dobias
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 70% vs Dobias 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl +1 · Dobias +3
Dobias
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Dobias) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 2.25 / Dobias 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Dobias)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13015215
Heinzl2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 43 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back24% 11 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Dobias1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite59% won 222 of 374
Up 2–0, closes it93% 71 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it81% 157 of 195
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl3wins
AwayDobias7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDobias87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl2Dobias8n = 10Dobias took 8 of 10
S2Heinzl3Dobias7n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S3Heinzl7Dobias3n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S4Heinzl1Dobias5n = 6Dobias took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlDobiasH − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.838.2−6.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime345 / 631 vs 405 / 72554.7%55.9%345 / 631 vs 405 / 725Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.941.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasHeinzl 2.25/Dobias 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 05:45L. Heinzl—9660L. Dobias—1111113
LAug 21 · 09:45L. Heinzl—731131L. Dobias—11116113
LJul 29 · 08:48L. Heinzl—971151L. Dobias—11118113
LJul 29 · 07:45L. Heinzl—771181L. Dobias—11118113
LJul 28 · 07:15L. Heinzl—9370L. Dobias—1111113
WJul 24 · 06:45L. Heinzl—1111113L. Dobias—9760
LJul 20 · 14:45L. Heinzl—51111452L. Dobias—118911113
WJul 20 · 07:15L. Heinzl—121311123L. Dobias—10153101
WJun 15 · 20:14L. Heinzl—411116113L. Dobias—11881192
LJun 15 · 19:15L. Heinzl—69140L. Dobias—1111163
L. Heinzl10
WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121WSep 2 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.731111113L. Adam2.008960WSep 2 · 05:45L. Heinzl1.30111179113O. Mezera3.4069111162
L. Dobias10
LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681LAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka2.1081111123L. Dobias1.671194101WAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062WAug 26 · 10:45M. Kocvara2.5031111982L. Dobias1.50119611113WAug 26 · 09:15P. Wasik1.808880L. Dobias1.911111113WAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.1061111532L. Dobias1.67113811113LAug 25 · 07:45L. Dobias1.61111091152M. Zelinka2.20912113113WAug 25 · 06:15M. Stibor2.105680L. Dobias1.671111113
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