TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031577
Played Aug 28Finished
Matus Zelinka
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111191141210––
Ladislav Dobias
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:11 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 76 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 57.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Matus Zelinka 24–31 Ladislav Dobias Matus Zelinka has won 24 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:11What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dobias
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-31 in 55
Dobias
Wrong
gap of 7 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelinka 1739 vs Dobias 1804
Dobias
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelinka 60% vs Dobias 80%
Dobias
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelinka 40% vs Dobias 70%
Dobias
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelinka -1 · Dobias +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelinka 2.10 / Dobias 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Dobias)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13031577
Zelinka2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog56% won 33 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back41% 14 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Dobias1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 220 of 372
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it80% 155 of 193
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelinka3wins
AwayDobias7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelinka66.7%2 of 3
AwayDobias85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelinka3Dobias7n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S2Zelinka3Dobias7n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S3Zelinka5Dobias5n = 10split evenly
S4Zelinka2Dobias3n = 5Dobias took 3 of 5
S5Zelinka1Dobias2n = 3Dobias took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelinkaDobiasZ − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.536.7−4.2per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelinkaDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 364 vs 406 / 72752.5%55.9%191 / 364 vs 406 / 727Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.841.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasZelinka 2.10/Dobias 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka—61111532L. Dobias—113811113
WAug 25 · 07:45M. Zelinka—912113113L. Dobias—111091152
LAug 24 · 06:15M. Zelinka—77100L. Dobias—1111123
LAug 7 · 08:38M. Zelinka—6690L. Dobias—1111113
WAug 7 · 06:30M. Zelinka—1111113L. Dobias—7970
LJul 29 · 05:15M. Zelinka—7490L. Dobias—1111113
WMay 10 · 12:18M. Zelinka—11911113L. Dobias—811581
LMay 10 · 11:15M. Zelinka—7870L. Dobias—1111113
LMay 6 · 12:29M. Zelinka—118781L. Dobias—81111113
LMay 6 · 11:15M. Zelinka—710131162L. Dobias—1112113113
M. Zelinka10
LSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951LSep 7 · 05:15P. Wasik1.531110117113M. Zelinka2.3831281182LSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.001171312123D. Gasparovic1.739111114102LSep 5 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.50811881L. Veigl2.5011911113WSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992LAug 30 · 08:28M. Zelinka1.73761181R. Pisa2.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:45V. Burylov1.801314111082M. Zelinka1.911512912113WAug 30 · 06:45R. Pisa2.00111011992M. Zelinka1.73612411113LAug 30 · 05:15T. Liska2.1011119113M. Zelinka1.67891181
L. Dobias10
LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681WAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062LAug 26 · 11:45L. Heinzl2.251213113L. Dobias1.57101190WAug 26 · 10:45M. Kocvara2.5031111982L. Dobias1.50119611113WAug 26 · 09:15P. Wasik1.808880L. Dobias1.911111113WAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.1061111532L. Dobias1.67113811113LAug 25 · 07:45L. Dobias1.61111091152M. Zelinka2.20912113113WAug 25 · 06:15M. Stibor2.105680L. Dobias1.671111113
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