TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015133
Played Aug 26Finished
Martin Kocvara
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311119116911811
Ladislav Dobias
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Kocvara above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 90 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 64.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Martin Kocvara 5–6 Ladislav Dobias Martin Kocvara has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocvara 1739 vs Dobias 1800
Dobias
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocvara 60% vs Dobias 80%
Dobias
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocvara 60% vs Dobias 80%
Dobias
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocvara +3 · Dobias +2
Kocvara
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Dobias) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocvara 2.50 / Dobias 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Dobias)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13015133
Kocvara2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog57% won 42 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back46% 17 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back24% 4 of 17
Dobias1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 222 of 374
Up 2–0, closes it93% 71 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it81% 157 of 195
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocvara5wins
AwayDobias5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocvara75%3 of 4
AwayDobias66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocvara4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S2Kocvara7Dobias3n = 10Kocvara took 7 of 10
S3Kocvara6Dobias4n = 10Kocvara took 6 of 10
S4Kocvara2Dobias6n = 8Dobias took 6 of 8
S5Kocvara2Dobias1n = 3Kocvara took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocvaraDobiasK − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.039.6−0.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocvaraDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 113 vs 404 / 72458.4%55.8%66 / 113 vs 404 / 724Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.741.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasKocvara 2.50/Dobias 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 12:55M. Kocvara—7135121L. Dobias—111111143
WAug 18 · 10:15M. Kocvara—51111173L. Dobias—1156151
LAug 12 · 05:15M. Kocvara—571161L. Dobias—11119113
LAug 11 · 20:48M. Kocvara—613781L. Dobias—111111113
WAug 11 · 19:45M. Kocvara—1011811113L. Dobias—12711562
LJul 28 · 08:49M. Kocvara—71111772L. Dobias—117711113
WJul 28 · 05:15M. Kocvara—118116123L. Dobias—511211102
LJul 20 · 08:19M. Kocvara—116891L. Dobias—81111113
WJul 20 · 05:15M. Kocvara—1211113L. Dobias—10990
WJun 8 · 12:50M. Kocvara—1211133L. Dobias—109110
M. Kocvara10
WSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481LSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480WSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113LSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113
L. Dobias10
LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681LAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka2.1081111123L. Dobias1.671194101WAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062LAug 26 · 11:45L. Heinzl2.251213113L. Dobias1.57101190WAug 26 · 09:15P. Wasik1.808880L. Dobias1.911111113WAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.1061111532L. Dobias1.67113811113LAug 25 · 07:45L. Dobias1.61111091152M. Zelinka2.20912113113WAug 25 · 06:15M. Stibor2.105680L. Dobias1.671111113
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