TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055021
Played Sep 1Finished
Martin Kocvara
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119811911118711
Michal Makara
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:45 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeMartin Kocvara to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Kocvara above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 96 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Martin Kocvara at 57.4%
96 points played in total.
H2H Martin Kocvara 9–5 Michal Makara Michal Makara has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:45What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kocvara
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Kocvara
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocvara 1724 vs Makara 1688
Kocvara
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocvara 40% vs Makara 60%
Makara
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocvara 50% vs Makara 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocvara -2 · Makara -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kocvara) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocvara 1.67 / Makara 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kocvara)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13055021
Kocvara1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 25 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Makara2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 174 of 378
Down 0–1, comes back25% 49 of 193
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocvara7wins
AwayMakara3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKocvara leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocvara75%6 of 8
AwayMakaran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocvara8Makara2n = 10Kocvara took 8 of 10
S2Kocvara3Makara7n = 10Makara took 7 of 10
S3Kocvara5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S4Kocvara7Makara2n = 9Kocvara took 7 of 9
S5Kocvara2Makara1n = 3Kocvara took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocvaraMakaraK − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.437.1+6.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocvaraMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 128 vs 495 / 102857%48.2%73 / 128 vs 495 / 1028Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocvaraKocvara 1.67/Makara 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Kocvara · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 08:21M. Kocvara—1110911113M. Makara—51211472
LSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara—11891172M. Makara—911118113
WAug 30 · 20:48M. Kocvara—12911113M. Makara—1011541
LAug 30 · 17:15M. Kocvara—1151291M. Makara—31114113
WAug 5 · 09:15M. Kocvara—11411113M. Makara—211591
WJul 26 · 09:45M. Kocvara—118811113M. Makara—81111532
WJul 9 · 06:45M. Kocvara—11119113M. Makara—881191
WJul 2 · 08:31M. Kocvara—101111113M. Makara—129771
LJul 2 · 06:15M. Kocvara—11911181M. Makara—13117203
WJun 28 · 08:58M. Kocvara—1113123M. Makara—511100
M. Kocvara10
WSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481LSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480WSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113LSep 1 · 06:15M. Kocvara2.75115561L. Heinzl1.4091111113
M. Makara10
WSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940LSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 10:30V. Burylov1.611171114113M. Makara2.2061171692LSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772LSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113LSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113LSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113LSep 1 · 06:45M. Makara1.8351350V. Burylov1.831115113
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M. Makara
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