TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073137
Played Sep 4Finished
Martin Kocvara
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113511211117114
Lukas Adam
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Kocvara to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Kocvara above · Lukas Adam below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 76 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Martin Kocvara at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Martin Kocvara 2–1 Lukas Adam Lukas Adam has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:19What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kocvara
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocvara 1736 vs Adam 1729
Kocvara
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocvara 40% vs Adam 80%
Adam
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocvara 50% vs Adam 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocvara +2 · Adam +4
Adam
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kocvara)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocvara 1.67 / Adam 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kocvara)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13073137
Kocvara1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 25 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Adam2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 55 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKocvara2wins
AwayAdam1wins
Kocvara leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocvara2Adam1n = 3Kocvara took 2 of 3
S2Kocvara2Adam1n = 3Kocvara took 2 of 3
S3Kocvara1Adam2n = 3Adam took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKocvaraAdamK − ABasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match33.332.0+1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocvaraAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 129 vs 279 / 54457.4%51.3%74 / 129 vs 279 / 544Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocvaraKocvara 1.67/Adam 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kocvara · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kocvara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 10 · 12:18M. Kocvara—84110L. Adam—1111133
WAug 10 · 10:15M. Kocvara—111110123L. Adam—7812101
WJun 18 · 06:45M. Kocvara—1111113L. Adam—9870
M. Kocvara10
WSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481LSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480WSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113LSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113LSep 1 · 06:15M. Kocvara2.75115561L. Heinzl1.4091111113
L. Adam10
LSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113WSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480LSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113WSep 4 · 09:30V. Burylov1.801141151L. Adam1.9181113113WSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772WSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791
Upcoming Matches
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L. Adam
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