TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084245
Played Sep 6Finished
Lukas Adam
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411711611––––
Jan Krames Sr
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Krames Sr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Adam above · Jan Krames Sr below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 50 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Jan Krames Sr at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 9–12 Jan Krames Sr Lukas Adam has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:39What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-12 in 21
Sr
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1745 vs Sr 1716
Adam
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 80% vs Sr 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 60% vs Sr 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam +2 · Sr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 2.10 / Sr 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sr)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13084245
Adam2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 57 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Sr1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 121 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it90% 66 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it78% 101 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdam4wins
AwaySr6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSr leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdam100%4 of 4
AwaySr100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam4Sr6n = 10Sr took 6 of 10
S2Adam5Sr5n = 10split evenly
S3Adam6Sr4n = 10Adam took 6 of 10
S4Adam2Sr5n = 7Sr took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamSrA − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.835.2−0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamSrBasisWin rate · lifetime281 / 547 vs 389 / 70451.4%55.3%281 / 547 vs 389 / 704Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.140.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrAdam 2.10/Sr 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 23 · 20:49L. Adam—8116101J. Sr—11611123
WMay 23 · 19:45L. Adam—1411123J. Sr—125100
LApr 10 · 19:00L. Adam—6711101J. Sr—11117123
LMar 24 · 20:15L. Adam—10270J. Sr—1211113
WMar 23 · 21:43L. Adam—11113113J. Sr—651131
LMar 23 · 20:45L. Adam—951181J. Sr—11114113
LMar 5 · 16:45L. Adam—511471J. Sr—11511113
WFeb 25 · 14:45L. Adam—117119113J. Sr—81161172
WJan 8 · 16:30L. Adam—1111113J. Sr—9760
LDec 16 · 06:45L. Adam—95111192J. Sr—111139113
L. Adam10
LSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113WSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480WSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 09:30V. Burylov1.801141151L. Adam1.9181113113WSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772WSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791
J. Sr10
WSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481WSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113WSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:45J. Senk2.755820J. Sr1.401111113LSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113WSep 4 · 20:53J. Sr1.7311118113D. Gasparovic2.00761121LSep 4 · 19:45J. Sr1.9111117662V. Burylov1.80531111113WSep 4 · 18:15A. Snr1.8361151152J. Sr1.83117117113
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