TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079129
Played Sep 5Finished
Lukas Veigl
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911115611911––
Jan Krames Sr
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeJan Krames Sr to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Veigl above · Jan Krames Sr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jan Krames Sr at 56.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Veigl 24–33 Jan Krames Sr Lukas Veigl has won 24 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:20What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-33 in 57
Sr
Correct
gap of 9 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Veigl 1720 vs Sr 1678
Veigl
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Veigl 60% vs Sr 80%
Sr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Veigl 70% vs Sr 50%
Veigl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Veigl +3 · Sr +1
Veigl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sr) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeigl 2.25 / Sr 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Sr)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13079129
Veigl2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 32 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Sr1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 120 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it90% 65 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it78% 100 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVeigl4wins
AwaySr6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSr leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeigl75%3 of 4
AwaySr83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Veigl4Sr6n = 10Sr took 6 of 10
S2Veigl6Sr4n = 10Veigl took 6 of 10
S3Veigl4Sr6n = 10Sr took 6 of 10
S4Veigl4Sr2n = 6Veigl took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeiglSrV − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.337.8−1.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeiglSrBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 527 vs 386 / 70052.2%55.1%275 / 527 vs 386 / 700Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.540.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrVeigl 2.25/Sr 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Sr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 29 · 16:43L. Veigl—1111143J. Sr—73120
LJul 29 · 13:45L. Veigl—76111462J. Sr—1111512113
WJun 24 · 20:43L. Veigl—121112113J. Sr—1091481
LJun 24 · 17:45L. Veigl—91170J. Sr—1113113
WJun 20 · 17:30L. Veigl—1113113J. Sr—71170
LJun 14 · 16:00L. Veigl—513101162J. Sr—1111129113
LMay 10 · 18:45L. Veigl—11116121J. Sr—13811143
LMay 9 · 11:00L. Veigl—4750J. Sr—1111113
WApr 28 · 19:45L. Veigl—71112113J. Sr—1161041
LApr 26 · 17:05L. Veigl—117691J. Sr—81111113
L. Veigl10
WSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361WSep 5 · 20:13J. Senk2.10411491L. Veigl1.6711711113LSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:15L. Veigl1.801111113J. Senk1.917890WSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WSep 5 · 07:45L. Veigl2.10311811113J. Chalupa1.6711911982WSep 5 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.50811881L. Veigl2.5011911113LSep 5 · 05:45D. Gasparovic1.361111113L. Veigl3.003930LJul 31 · 08:44O. Kaderabek2.1061111113L. Veigl1.67119881LJul 31 · 07:15L. Veigl2.20711161032L. Dobias1.611131412113
J. Sr10
WSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481WSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113WSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:45J. Senk2.755820J. Sr1.401111113LSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 4 · 20:53J. Sr1.7311118113D. Gasparovic2.00761121LSep 4 · 19:45J. Sr1.9111117662V. Burylov1.80531111113WSep 4 · 18:15A. Snr1.8361151152J. Sr1.83117117113
Upcoming Matches
L. Veigl
J. Sr
Nothing scheduled
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