TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079222
Played Sep 5Finished
Lukas Veigl
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
311119811119118
Josef Chalupa
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeJosef Chalupa to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Veigl above · Josef Chalupa below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 92 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Josef Chalupa at 56.6%
92 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Veigl 15–18 Josef Chalupa Lukas Veigl has won 15 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:36What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chalupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-18 in 33
Chalupa
Wrong
gap of 3 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Veigl 1694 vs Chalupa 1810
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Veigl 40% vs Chalupa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Veigl 50% vs Chalupa 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Veigl +1 · Chalupa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeigl 2.10 / Chalupa 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Chalupa)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13079222
Veigl2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 32 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Chalupa1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 55 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it78% 32 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVeigl2wins
AwayChalupa8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeigl33.3%1 of 3
AwayChalupa85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Veigl3Chalupa7n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S2Veigl3Chalupa7n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S3Veigl4Chalupa6n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S4Veigl3Chalupa4n = 7Chalupa took 4 of 7
S5Veigl1Chalupa3n = 4Chalupa took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeiglChalupaV − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.941.3−3.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeiglChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 525 vs 205 / 36652%56%273 / 525 vs 205 / 366Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.540.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaVeigl 2.10/Chalupa 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Veigl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 28 · 20:43L. Veigl—9680J. Chalupa—1111113
WApr 28 · 18:45L. Veigl—6111111133J. Chalupa—111377112
LMar 30 · 07:45L. Veigl—9870J. Chalupa—1111113
WMar 23 · 09:48L. Veigl—11116123J. Chalupa—8411101
LMar 23 · 08:45L. Veigl—117981J. Chalupa—91111113
LNov 24 · 17:16L. Veigl—471181J. Chalupa—11114113
LNov 24 · 16:15L. Veigl—711111272J. Chalupa—114714113
LOct 14 · 07:15L. Veigl—61191382J. Chalupa—1171111113
LSep 12 · 16:20L. Veigl—121111882J. Chalupa—1013711113
LSep 12 · 13:15L. Veigl—111090J. Chalupa—1312113
L. Veigl10
WSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951WSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361WSep 5 · 20:13J. Senk2.10411491L. Veigl1.6711711113LSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:15L. Veigl1.801111113J. Senk1.917890LSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113WSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WSep 5 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.50811881L. Veigl2.5011911113LSep 5 · 05:45D. Gasparovic1.361111113L. Veigl3.003930LJul 31 · 08:44O. Kaderabek2.1061111113L. Veigl1.67119881
J. Chalupa10
WSep 6 · 16:29J. Chalupa1.4411812113S. Rejent2.638111071LSep 6 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.80111011992V. Burylov1.91812911113WSep 6 · 14:15S. Rejent2.634130J. Chalupa1.441111113LSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791WSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111WSep 5 · 06:45D. Gasparovic2.20911521J. Chalupa1.6111711113LSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992LAug 23 · 13:05J. Chalupa1.831271291L. Heinzl1.83101114113LAug 23 · 12:00L. Heinzl1.8311712133J. Chalupa1.8341110111WAug 23 · 11:00J. Sr1.8313121111102J. Chalupa1.831510136123
Upcoming Matches
L. Veigl
J. Chalupa
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