TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088863
Played Sep 7Finished
Lukas Veigl
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119611119115––
Matus Zelinka
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:48 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Veigl above · Matus Zelinka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 73 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Matus Zelinka at 62.9%
73 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Veigl 12–20 Matus Zelinka Lukas Veigl has won 12 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:48What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zelinka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-20 in 32
Zelinka
Wrong
gap of 8 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Veigl 1691 vs Zelinka 1687
Veigl
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Veigl 60% vs Zelinka 40%
Veigl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Veigl 60% vs Zelinka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Veigl +2 · Zelinka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Zelinka) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelinka form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeigl 2.38 / Zelinka 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Zelinka)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13088863
Veigl2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 35 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back17% 9 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Zelinka1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 69 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it86% 25 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it75% 44 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVeigl6wins
AwayZelinka4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVeigl leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeigl100%5 of 5
AwayZelinka80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Veigl5Zelinka5n = 10split evenly
S2Veigl3Zelinka7n = 10Zelinka took 7 of 10
S3Veigl6Zelinka4n = 10Veigl took 6 of 10
S4Veigl7Zelinka1n = 8Veigl took 7 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeiglZelinkaV − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.838.4−0.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeiglZelinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 530 vs 197 / 37852.1%52.1%276 / 530 vs 197 / 378Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaVeigl 2.38/Zelinka 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Veigl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl—11611113M. Zelinka—911951
WSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl—12611113M. Zelinka—1011971
WSep 5 · 06:15L. Veigl—11911113M. Zelinka—811881
LJun 12 · 20:00L. Veigl—8911111M. Zelinka—11117133
LMay 13 · 13:45L. Veigl—81371132M. Zelinka—1111119113
LMay 10 · 10:15L. Veigl—21070M. Zelinka—1112113
WApr 26 · 16:00L. Veigl—11157113M. Zelinka—8131161
LApr 25 · 10:30L. Veigl—71390M. Zelinka—1115113
WApr 18 · 20:55L. Veigl—71111113M. Zelinka—117791
WApr 18 · 19:45L. Veigl—12911123M. Zelinka—10119101
L. Veigl10
LSep 7 · 07:15P. Wasik1.611211113L. Veigl2.2010850WSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361WSep 5 · 20:13J. Senk2.10411491L. Veigl1.6711711113LSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:15L. Veigl1.801111113J. Senk1.917890LSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113WSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WSep 5 · 07:45L. Veigl2.10311811113J. Chalupa1.6711911982WSep 5 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.50811881L. Veigl2.5011911113LSep 5 · 05:45D. Gasparovic1.361111113L. Veigl3.003930
M. Zelinka10
LSep 7 · 05:15P. Wasik1.531110117113M. Zelinka2.3831281182LSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.001171312123D. Gasparovic1.739111114102LSep 5 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.50811881L. Veigl2.5011911113WSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992LAug 30 · 08:28M. Zelinka1.73761181R. Pisa2.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:45V. Burylov1.801314111082M. Zelinka1.911512912113WAug 30 · 06:45R. Pisa2.00111011992M. Zelinka1.73612411113LAug 30 · 05:15T. Liska2.1011119113M. Zelinka1.67891181WAug 28 · 16:19J. Sr2.02100M. Zelinka1.70121
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