TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043757
Played Aug 30Finished
Radovan Pisa
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161012114911911
Matus Zelinka
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadovan Pisa above · Matus Zelinka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 94 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Matus Zelinka at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Pisa 18–24 Matus Zelinka Radovan Pisa has won 18 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:16What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zelinka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-24 in 42
Zelinka
Correct
gap of 6 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pisa 1721 vs Zelinka 1707
Pisa
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pisa 60% vs Zelinka 40%
Pisa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pisa 60% vs Zelinka 40%
Pisa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pisa -2 · Zelinka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zelinka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelinka form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPisa 2.00 / Zelinka 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zelinka)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13043757
Pisa2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 92 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back29% 32 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back15% 9 of 61
Zelinka1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite52% won 72 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it81% 26 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it72% 46 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePisa6wins
AwayZelinka4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPisa leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePisa80%4 of 5
AwayZelinka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pisa5Zelinka5n = 10split evenly
S2Pisa2Zelinka8n = 10Zelinka took 8 of 10
S3Pisa7Zelinka3n = 10Pisa took 7 of 10
S4Pisa6Zelinka3n = 9Pisa took 6 of 9
S5Pisa3Zelinka2n = 5Pisa took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPisaZelinkaP − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.838.9+1.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPisaZelinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 795 vs 195 / 37248.2%52.4%383 / 795 vs 195 / 372Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaPisa 2.00/Zelinka 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 08:28R. Pisa—11115113M. Zelinka—761181
LAug 30 · 06:45R. Pisa—111011992M. Zelinka—612411113
LAug 11 · 07:15R. Pisa—861181M. Zelinka—11113113
WAug 10 · 12:48R. Pisa—841211113M. Zelinka—111110882
WAug 10 · 10:45R. Pisa—11116113M. Zelinka—961141
LAug 8 · 17:45R. Pisa—71350M. Zelinka—1115113
WJul 27 · 20:00R. Pisa—1191110113M. Zelinka—41181272
WJun 14 · 07:30R. Pisa—12911113M. Zelinka—1011681
LMay 11 · 10:15R. Pisa—75111152M. Zelinka—111177113
WApr 26 · 16:35R. Pisa—77111173M. Zelinka—11115832
R. Pisa10
LSep 3 · 20:14R. Pisa2.008250A. Snr1.731111113LSep 3 · 19:45T. Liska2.201111113R. Pisa1.617990WSep 3 · 18:45A. Snr1.571011731R. Pisa2.2512611113LSep 3 · 17:15M. Vyskocil1.8091112113R. Pisa1.911131011WSep 2 · 20:48R. Pisa1.8311129113M. Ullman1.833101191WSep 2 · 19:45R. Pisa1.7311118113J. Dolezal2.00381181LSep 2 · 18:15M. Ullman1.831191112113R. Pisa1.8391161462WSep 2 · 17:45S. Rejent1.83118571R. Pisa1.8361111113LAug 31 · 08:23L. Heinzl1.67111214113R. Pisa2.108101671LAug 31 · 07:15R. Pisa1.7311111011122M. Makara2.00813127143
M. Zelinka10
LSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951LSep 7 · 05:15P. Wasik1.531110117113M. Zelinka2.3831281182LSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.001171312123D. Gasparovic1.739111114102LSep 5 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.50811881L. Veigl2.5011911113WSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992LAug 30 · 08:28M. Zelinka1.73761181R. Pisa2.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:45V. Burylov1.801314111082M. Zelinka1.911512912113LAug 30 · 05:15T. Liska2.1011119113M. Zelinka1.67891181WAug 28 · 16:19J. Sr2.02100M. Zelinka1.70121
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