TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049384
Played Aug 31Finished
Radovan Pisa
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118111310121171214
Michal Makara
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeRadovan Pisa to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadovan Pisa above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 109 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Radovan Pisa at 54.9%
109 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Pisa 35–28 Michal Makara Michal Makara has won 28 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:57What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pisa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-28 in 63
Pisa
Wrong
gap of 7 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pisa 1721 vs Makara 1698
Pisa
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pisa 40% vs Makara 60%
Makara
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pisa 50% vs Makara 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pisa +1 · Makara +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pisa) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pisa form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPisa 1.73 / Makara 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pisa)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13049384
Pisa1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 78 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it65% 55 of 85
Makara2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 174 of 378
Down 0–1, comes back25% 49 of 193
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePisa4wins
AwayMakara6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMakara leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePisa33.3%2 of 6
AwayMakara50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pisa6Makara4n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S2Pisa3Makara7n = 10Makara took 7 of 10
S3Pisa5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S4Pisa4Makara5n = 9Makara took 5 of 9
S5Pisa1Makara2n = 3Makara took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPisaMakaraP − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.338.8+0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPisaMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 795 vs 495 / 102748.2%48.2%383 / 795 vs 495 / 1027Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PisaPisa 1.73/Makara 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Pisa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 07:15R. Pisa—11111011122M. Makara—813127143
LAug 28 · 08:28R. Pisa—119981M. Makara—61111113
WAug 28 · 07:30R. Pisa—1111115113M. Makara—13591162
LAug 22 · 20:44R. Pisa—119551M. Makara—61111113
WAug 22 · 19:45R. Pisa—11101193M. Makara—412751
LAug 11 · 15:45R. Pisa—10111181M. Makara—12138113
LAug 8 · 19:45R. Pisa—3980M. Makara—1111113
WAug 5 · 10:45R. Pisa—11116113M. Makara—461171
WAug 4 · 12:13R. Pisa—31311113M. Makara—1111821
LAug 4 · 11:15R. Pisa—111011662M. Makara—412911113
R. Pisa10
WSep 7 · 09:15A. Radkovsky1.9167111352R. Pisa1.801111711113LSep 3 · 20:14R. Pisa2.008250A. Snr1.731111113LSep 3 · 19:45T. Liska2.201111113R. Pisa1.617990WSep 3 · 18:45A. Snr1.571011731R. Pisa2.2512611113LSep 3 · 17:15M. Vyskocil1.8091112113R. Pisa1.911131011WSep 2 · 20:48R. Pisa1.8311129113M. Ullman1.833101191WSep 2 · 19:45R. Pisa1.7311118113J. Dolezal2.00381181LSep 2 · 18:15M. Ullman1.831191112113R. Pisa1.8391161462WSep 2 · 17:45S. Rejent1.83118571R. Pisa1.8361111113LAug 31 · 08:23L. Heinzl1.67111214113R. Pisa2.108101671
M. Makara10
WSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940LSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 10:30V. Burylov1.611171114113M. Makara2.2061171692LSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772LSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113LSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113LSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113WSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113
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