TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061320
Played Sep 2Finished
Miloslav Ullman
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1199111161214116
Radovan Pisa
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadovan Pisa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiloslav Ullman above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 100 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Radovan Pisa at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Miloslav Ullman 24–20 Radovan Pisa Radovan Pisa has won 20 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:33What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pisa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-20 in 44
Ullman
Correct
gap of 4 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ullman 1602 vs Pisa 1731
Pisa
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ullman 40% vs Pisa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ullman 40% vs Pisa 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ullman +2 · Pisa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pisa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pisa form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUllman 1.83 / Pisa 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pisa)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13061320
Ullman1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Pisa1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUllman7wins
AwayPisa3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderUllman leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUllman85.7%6 of 7
AwayPisa66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ullman7Pisa3n = 10Ullman took 7 of 10
S2Ullman6Pisa4n = 10Ullman took 6 of 10
S3Ullman4Pisa6n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S4Ullman5Pisa5n = 10split evenly
S5Ullman3Pisa1n = 4Ullman took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricUllmanPisaU − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.341.8+2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUllmanPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 403 vs 384 / 79646.7%48.2%188 / 403 vs 384 / 796Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PisaUllman 1.83/Pisa 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pisa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ullman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 8 · 06:30M. Ullman—1111712113R. Pisa—88111492
LJun 13 · 20:20M. Ullman—11133101R. Pisa—71511123
WJun 13 · 17:45M. Ullman—1011117113R. Pisa—12751182
WApr 4 · 08:13M. Ullman—115612113R. Pisa—711111082
LApr 4 · 07:15M. Ullman—101111692R. Pisa—125811113
WMar 11 · 09:28M. Ullman—11712113R. Pisa—6111081
WMar 11 · 07:30M. Ullman—14118113R. Pisa—1281151
WFeb 23 · 09:48M. Ullman—11117113R. Pisa—791131
LFeb 23 · 06:45M. Ullman—711991R. Pisa—11911113
WFeb 14 · 07:30M. Ullman—111211173R. Pisa—8146151
M. Ullman10
LSep 2 · 20:48R. Pisa1.8311129113M. Ullman1.833101191LSep 2 · 19:15M. Ullman2.10911101172S. Rejent1.67116124113WSep 2 · 17:15M. Ullman1.73711511113J. Dolezal2.0011611682WAug 27 · 08:18P. Fencl1.73917781M. Ullman2.00111511113LAug 27 · 07:15M. Ullman1.7311148392M. Vyskocil2.009121111113LAug 27 · 06:15M. Ullman1.83713118112V. Grubr1.831111411133LAug 27 · 05:15M. Ullman1.738480P. Fencl2.001111113WAug 10 · 08:43M. Makara1.7311711422M. Ullman2.00811611113LAug 10 · 07:45M. Ullman2.00113791M. Makara1.7361111113LAug 10 · 06:15L. Rulc1.73811712113M. Ullman2.00115111062
R. Pisa10
LSep 3 · 20:14R. Pisa2.008250A. Snr1.731111113LSep 3 · 19:45T. Liska2.201111113R. Pisa1.617990WSep 3 · 18:45A. Snr1.571011731R. Pisa2.2512611113LSep 3 · 17:15M. Vyskocil1.8091112113R. Pisa1.911131011WSep 2 · 20:48R. Pisa1.8311129113M. Ullman1.833101191WSep 2 · 19:45R. Pisa1.7311118113J. Dolezal2.00381181WSep 2 · 17:45S. Rejent1.83118571R. Pisa1.8361111113LAug 31 · 08:23L. Heinzl1.67111214113R. Pisa2.108101671LAug 31 · 07:15R. Pisa1.7311111011122M. Makara2.00813127143WAug 31 · 06:15R. Pisa2.2081411113L. Heinzl1.611112981
Upcoming Matches
M. Ullman
Nothing scheduled
R. Pisa
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