TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049413
Played Aug 31Finished
Radovan Pisa
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111412119118––
Lukas Heinzl
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadovan Pisa above · Lukas Heinzl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 84 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 55.9%
84 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Pisa 28–47 Lukas Heinzl Radovan Pisa has won 28 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Heinzl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-47 in 75
Heinzl
Wrong
gap of 19 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pisa 1721 vs Heinzl 1748
Heinzl
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pisa 20% vs Heinzl 40%
Heinzl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pisa 40% vs Heinzl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pisa -1 · Heinzl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Heinzl) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heinzl form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPisa 2.20 / Heinzl 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Heinzl)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13049413
Pisa2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 91 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back28% 31 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back15% 9 of 61
Heinzl1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 155 of 262
Up 2–0, closes it95% 71 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it76% 112 of 147
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePisa4wins
AwayHeinzl6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePisa25%1 of 4
AwayHeinzl50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pisa4Heinzl6n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S2Pisa4Heinzl6n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S3Pisa6Heinzl4n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S4Pisa2Heinzl5n = 7Heinzl took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPisaHeinzlP − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.642.1−2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPisaHeinzlBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 795 vs 353 / 64448.2%54.8%383 / 795 vs 353 / 644Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlPisa 2.20/Heinzl 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 08:23R. Pisa—8101671L. Heinzl—111214113
WAug 31 · 06:15R. Pisa—81411113L. Heinzl—1112981
WAug 29 · 10:45R. Pisa—714119113L. Heinzl—111291192
LAug 28 · 06:00R. Pisa—1112471L. Heinzl—81411113
LJul 24 · 08:48R. Pisa—81050L. Heinzl—1112113
LJul 24 · 07:45R. Pisa—1198131L. Heinzl—91111153
WJul 9 · 16:36R. Pisa—131111113L. Heinzl—158971
WJul 9 · 14:30R. Pisa—1113113L. Heinzl—61160
LJul 7 · 07:15R. Pisa—127128102L. Heinzl—10111011123
LJul 2 · 19:45R. Pisa—101650L. Heinzl—1218113
R. Pisa10
LSep 3 · 20:14R. Pisa2.008250A. Snr1.731111113LSep 3 · 19:45T. Liska2.201111113R. Pisa1.617990WSep 3 · 18:45A. Snr1.571011731R. Pisa2.2512611113LSep 3 · 17:15M. Vyskocil1.8091112113R. Pisa1.911131011WSep 2 · 20:48R. Pisa1.8311129113M. Ullman1.833101191WSep 2 · 19:45R. Pisa1.7311118113J. Dolezal2.00381181LSep 2 · 18:15M. Ullman1.831191112113R. Pisa1.8391161462WSep 2 · 17:45S. Rejent1.83118571R. Pisa1.8361111113LAug 31 · 08:23L. Heinzl1.67111214113R. Pisa2.108101671LAug 31 · 07:15R. Pisa1.7311111011122M. Makara2.00813127143
L. Heinzl10
LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121WAug 31 · 08:23L. Heinzl1.67111214113R. Pisa2.108101671
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