TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067313
Played Sep 3Finished
Lukas Heinzl
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111315811––––
Michal Stibor
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:17 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Michal Stibor below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 66 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 54.9%
66 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 14–12 Michal Stibor Michal Stibor has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:17What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Heinzl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-12 in 26
Heinzl
Wrong
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1739 vs Stibor 1746
Stibor
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 60% vs Stibor 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 70% vs Stibor 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl -1 · Stibor +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Heinzl)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.73 / Stibor 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Heinzl)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13067313
Heinzl1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 158 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it95% 74 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it77% 115 of 150
Stibor2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 23 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl5wins
AwayStibor5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl57.1%4 of 7
AwayStibor66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl7Stibor3n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S2Heinzl6Stibor4n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S3Heinzl3Stibor7n = 10Stibor took 7 of 10
S4Heinzl4Stibor3n = 7Heinzl took 4 of 7
S5Heinzl1Stibor2n = 3Stibor took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlStiborH − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.236.3+2.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlStiborBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 648 vs 171 / 32354.8%52.9%355 / 648 vs 171 / 323Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.73/Stibor 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stibor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl—81380M. Stibor—1115113
WAug 16 · 07:15L. Heinzl—1111123M. Stibor—96100
LAug 8 · 12:23L. Heinzl—12118642M. Stibor—1081111113
WAug 8 · 11:15L. Heinzl—1111611113M. Stibor—71311522
WJul 20 · 08:49L. Heinzl—11118113M. Stibor—591161
LJul 20 · 05:45L. Heinzl—1171051M. Stibor—11112113
LJul 7 · 08:23L. Heinzl—812121192M. Stibor—1110147113
WJul 7 · 05:45L. Heinzl—1112113M. Stibor—71070
WJun 9 · 07:15L. Heinzl—121111113M. Stibor—146571
LJun 4 · 13:08L. Heinzl—118951M. Stibor—41111113
L. Heinzl10
LSep 7 · 08:49M. Zelinka1.8311812113L. Heinzl1.839111091LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121WSep 2 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.731111113L. Adam2.008960
M. Stibor10
LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113WSep 3 · 05:15L. Adam2.1021111562M. Stibor1.67117511113LAug 31 · 12:18M. Vyskocil1.67441111133M. Stibor2.10111199112LAug 31 · 11:15M. Stibor1.738770M. Vyskocil2.001111113WAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102WAug 31 · 09:15M. Stibor1.501181411113M. Kocvara2.50131112762WAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191WAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113WAug 26 · 06:45M. Stibor1.61291111113V. Grubr2.2011114862
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