TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049478
Played Aug 31Finished
Michal Stibor
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11136111191171210
Lukas Rulc
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Stibor to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 101 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Michal Stibor at 65.7%
101 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 28–16 Lukas Rulc Lukas Rulc has won 16 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:24What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stibor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-16 in 44
Stibor
Correct
gap of 12 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1738 vs Rulc 1599
Stibor
Correct
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 80% vs Rulc 60%
Stibor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 70% vs Rulc 50%
Stibor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor +4 · Rulc -2
Stibor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Stibor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 1.50 / Rulc 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Stibor)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13049478
Stibor1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 73 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it84% 46 of 55
Rulc2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 67 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back16% 10 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStibor6wins
AwayRulc4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStibor leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStibor100%3 of 3
AwayRulc57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor3Rulc7n = 10Rulc took 7 of 10
S2Stibor8Rulc2n = 10Stibor took 8 of 10
S3Stibor5Rulc5n = 10split evenly
S4Stibor7Rulc2n = 9Stibor took 7 of 9
S5Stibor1Rulc2n = 3Rulc took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStiborRulcS − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.839.0+3.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 322 vs 348 / 70252.5%49.6%169 / 322 vs 348 / 702Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StiborStibor 1.50/Rulc 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Stibor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stibor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 08:23M. Stibor—11111311113L. Rulc—13115862
WAug 25 · 07:15M. Stibor—111213133L. Rulc—91411111
WAug 20 · 08:48M. Stibor—1111113L. Rulc—9660
LAug 20 · 05:15M. Stibor—513991L. Rulc—111111113
LAug 16 · 08:19M. Stibor—811871L. Rulc—11911113
WAug 16 · 06:15M. Stibor—81111113L. Rulc—116541
WAug 8 · 09:15M. Stibor—81411113L. Rulc—1112851
LJul 29 · 06:30M. Stibor—911101152L. Rulc—119128113
WJun 18 · 06:15M. Stibor—11611113L. Rulc—711671
LJun 5 · 05:30M. Stibor—711813102L. Rulc—1161111123
M. Stibor10
LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113WSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113WSep 3 · 05:15L. Adam2.1021111562M. Stibor1.67117511113LAug 31 · 12:18M. Vyskocil1.67441111133M. Stibor2.10111199112LAug 31 · 11:15M. Stibor1.738770M. Vyskocil2.001111113WAug 31 · 09:15M. Stibor1.501181411113M. Kocvara2.50131112762WAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191WAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113WAug 26 · 06:45M. Stibor1.61291111113V. Grubr2.2011114862
L. Rulc10
LSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:45L. Rulc1.67121189123T. Liska2.101041111102WSep 1 · 10:15V. Grubr1.834116101L. Rulc1.8311511123LSep 1 · 09:45A. Radkovsky2.101111113L. Rulc1.677660LAug 31 · 12:48M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Rulc1.447870WAug 31 · 11:45L. Rulc1.6711711113M. Kocvara2.10811671LAug 31 · 09:45M. Vyskocil2.75139114113L. Rulc1.40111181132LAug 29 · 13:05M. Makara1.801512113L. Rulc1.91131090WAug 29 · 12:00L. Rulc1.91118911113M. Makara1.8091111662WAug 29 · 10:30T. Liska2.2511981142L. Rulc1.57911119113
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