TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055225
Played Sep 1Finished
Vojtech Grubr
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111156111012––
Lukas Rulc
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVojtech Grubr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVojtech Grubr above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 70 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Vojtech Grubr at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Grubr 10–9 Lukas Rulc Lukas Rulc has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:18What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Rulc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grubr 1645 vs Rulc 1595
Grubr
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grubr 60% vs Rulc 20%
Grubr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grubr 70% vs Rulc 40%
Grubr
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grubr +1 · Rulc -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Grubr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrubr 1.83 / Rulc 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Grubr)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13055225
Grubr1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Rulc1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrubr6wins
AwayRulc4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderGrubr leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrubr80%4 of 5
AwayRulc60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grubr5Rulc5n = 10split evenly
S2Grubr5Rulc5n = 10split evenly
S3Grubr7Rulc3n = 10Grubr took 7 of 10
S4Grubr2Rulc4n = 6Rulc took 4 of 6
S5Grubr3Rulc2n = 5Grubr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrubrRulcG − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.038.5+2.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrubrRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 459 vs 349 / 70550.3%49.5%231 / 459 vs 349 / 705Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrubrGrubr 1.83/Rulc 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Grubr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 07:15V. Grubr—111179113L. Rulc—96111192
WJul 28 · 08:28V. Grubr—1111113L. Rulc—7760
WJul 28 · 07:30V. Grubr—12711123L. Rulc—10114101
LMay 19 · 06:15V. Grubr—11911692L. Rulc—811811113
WMay 15 · 06:45V. Grubr—611115113L. Rulc—11931182
WApr 17 · 05:15V. Grubr—1111133L. Rulc—79110
WApr 7 · 06:45V. Grubr—1271111133L. Rulc—141157112
LApr 2 · 09:45V. Grubr—91090L. Rulc—1112113
LMar 24 · 20:00V. Grubr—97120L. Rulc—1111143
LMar 9 · 14:15V. Grubr—8111111102L. Rulc—117513123
V. Grubr10
LSep 2 · 12:13A. Radkovsky2.1011191217113V. Grubr1.67817141992LSep 2 · 11:15V. Grubr1.53118281M. Vyskocil2.3891111113WSep 2 · 10:15V. Grubr1.67117511113J. Dolezal2.1061111972LSep 2 · 09:15V. Grubr1.61691181A. Radkovsky2.2011117113WSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:15V. Grubr1.67611511113A. Radkovsky2.1011611792WSep 1 · 09:15V. Grubr1.911111113T. Liska1.809990LAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 15:45A. Radkovsky1.831011371V. Grubr1.8312911113WAug 31 · 14:45O. Mezera1.8310680V. Grubr1.831211113
L. Rulc10
LSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:45L. Rulc1.67121189123T. Liska2.101041111102LSep 1 · 09:45A. Radkovsky2.101111113L. Rulc1.677660LAug 31 · 12:48M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Rulc1.447870WAug 31 · 11:45L. Rulc1.6711711113M. Kocvara2.10811671LAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102LAug 31 · 09:45M. Vyskocil2.75139114113L. Rulc1.40111181132LAug 29 · 13:05M. Makara1.801512113L. Rulc1.91131090WAug 29 · 12:00L. Rulc1.91118911113M. Makara1.8091111662WAug 29 · 10:30T. Liska2.2511981142L. Rulc1.57911119113
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