TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055587
Played Sep 1Finished
Lukas Rulc
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12101148119111210
Tomas Liska
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Rulc above · Tomas Liska below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 98 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Lukas Rulc at 56.6%
98 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Rulc 66–54 Tomas Liska Tomas Liska has won 54 of their 120 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:27What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rulc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-54 in 120
Rulc
Correct
gap of 12 in 120, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rulc 1608 vs Liska 1626
Liska
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rulc 40% vs Liska 60%
Liska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rulc 50% vs Liska 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rulc +1 · Liska +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Rulc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Liska form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRulc 1.67 / Liska 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Rulc)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13055587
Rulc1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 106 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it85% 46 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it69% 75 of 108
Liska2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 101 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back19% 26 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRulc6wins
AwayLiska4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRulc leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRulc100%6 of 6
AwayLiska100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rulc6Liska4n = 10Rulc took 6 of 10
S2Rulc4Liska6n = 10Liska took 6 of 10
S3Rulc4Liska6n = 10Liska took 6 of 10
S4Rulc4Liska5n = 9Liska took 5 of 9
S5Rulc4Liska1n = 5Rulc took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRulcLiskaR − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.940.2+0.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRulcLiskaBasisWin rate · lifetime350 / 706 vs 403 / 87649.6%46%350 / 706 vs 403 / 876Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RulcRulc 1.67/Liska 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 08:45L. Rulc—81111692T. Liska—118811113
LAug 17 · 07:45L. Rulc—1011821T. Liska—12911113
WAug 4 · 05:15L. Rulc—119911113T. Liska—31111672
WAug 2 · 19:45L. Rulc—114911113T. Liska—61111742
WJul 28 · 06:00L. Rulc—112119113T. Liska—71181182
LJul 5 · 08:18L. Rulc—98100T. Liska—1111123
WJul 5 · 05:15L. Rulc—111011113T. Liska—912791
LJun 28 · 08:28L. Rulc—1013951T. Liska—121111113
WJun 28 · 06:30L. Rulc—11513113T. Liska—8111181
WJun 16 · 06:45L. Rulc—111166113T. Liska—34111152
L. Rulc10
LSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 10:15V. Grubr1.834116101L. Rulc1.8311511123LSep 1 · 09:45A. Radkovsky2.101111113L. Rulc1.677660LAug 31 · 12:48M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Rulc1.447870WAug 31 · 11:45L. Rulc1.6711711113M. Kocvara2.10811671LAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102LAug 31 · 09:45M. Vyskocil2.75139114113L. Rulc1.40111181132LAug 29 · 13:05M. Makara1.801512113L. Rulc1.91131090WAug 29 · 12:00L. Rulc1.91118911113M. Makara1.8091111662WAug 29 · 10:30T. Liska2.2511981142L. Rulc1.57911119113
T. Liska10
LSep 4 · 08:48T. Liska1.91911981M. Vyskocil1.8011811113WSep 4 · 07:45M. Vyskocil1.73101090T. Liska2.001212113WSep 4 · 06:45J. Senk2.207990T. Liska1.611111113WSep 4 · 05:15P. Fencl1.8011111010102T. Liska1.91761212123LSep 3 · 20:43T. Liska1.919101161M. Vyskocil1.8011126113WSep 3 · 19:45T. Liska2.201111113R. Pisa1.617990WSep 3 · 18:15M. Vyskocil1.67117117112T. Liska2.10711811133WSep 3 · 17:45A. Snr1.83119561T. Liska1.8371111113WSep 1 · 12:23T. Liska1.5391111123A. Radkovsky2.381176101LAug 29 · 10:30T. Liska2.2511981142L. Rulc1.57911119113
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