TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073606
Played Sep 4Finished
Pavel Fencl
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117116101210121012
Tomas Liska
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Fencl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Fencl above · Tomas Liska below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 101 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Pavel Fencl at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Fencl 6–7 Tomas Liska Pavel Fencl has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:51What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Fencl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fencl 1561 vs Liska 1669
Liska
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fencl 40% vs Liska 80%
Liska
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fencl 30% vs Liska 70%
Liska
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fencl -3 · Liska -1
Fencl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fencl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Liska form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFencl 1.80 / Liska 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Fencl)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073606
Fencl1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Liska1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 101 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFencl5wins
AwayLiska5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFencl75%3 of 4
AwayLiska66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fencl4Liska6n = 10Liska took 6 of 10
S2Fencl4Liska6n = 10Liska took 6 of 10
S3Fencl7Liska3n = 10Fencl took 7 of 10
S4Fencl4Liska3n = 7Fencl took 4 of 7
S5Fencl1Liska2n = 3Liska took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFenclLiskaF − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.136.2+2.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFenclLiskaBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 83 vs 405 / 87848.2%46.1%40 / 83 vs 405 / 878Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.940.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FenclFencl 1.80/Liska 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Fencl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Liska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 08:18P. Fencl—8101261T. Liska—111210113
WAug 13 · 06:15P. Fencl—8111310113T. Liska—119111282
WJun 16 · 08:13P. Fencl—11512123T. Liska—31110101
LJun 16 · 05:15P. Fencl—87100T. Liska—1111123
LSep 7 · 12:10P. Fencl—11791182T. Liska—211118113
WSep 7 · 09:15P. Fencl—91111113T. Liska—116751
WAug 15 · 14:45P. Fencl—11711113T. Liska—711151
WJul 30 · 13:30P. Fencl—1111113T. Liska—5580
LJun 7 · 12:00P. Fencl—811127122T. Liska—1171011143
LMay 23 · 13:45P. Fencl—8990T. Liska—1111103
P. Fencl10
WSep 4 · 08:19J. Senk2.107960P. Fencl1.671111113WSep 4 · 07:15P. Fencl1.7311811113J. Senk2.00911781LSep 4 · 06:15P. Fencl2.201111115102M. Vyskocil1.61613911123LAug 27 · 08:18P. Fencl1.73917781M. Ullman2.00111511113LAug 27 · 07:45V. Grubr2.1041115113P. Fencl1.671171341LAug 27 · 06:45M. Vyskocil1.9181111113P. Fencl1.80118331WAug 27 · 05:15M. Ullman1.738480P. Fencl2.001111113WAug 17 · 08:13P. Fencl2.101111113J. Rochowanski1.676920LAug 17 · 07:15J. Rochowanski1.73591211113P. Fencl2.00111110392LAug 17 · 06:45P. Fencl2.50761181L. Rulc1.5011116113
T. Liska10
LSep 4 · 08:48T. Liska1.91911981M. Vyskocil1.8011811113WSep 4 · 07:45M. Vyskocil1.73101090T. Liska2.001212113WSep 4 · 06:45J. Senk2.207990T. Liska1.611111113LSep 3 · 20:43T. Liska1.919101161M. Vyskocil1.8011126113WSep 3 · 19:45T. Liska2.201111113R. Pisa1.617990WSep 3 · 18:15M. Vyskocil1.67117117112T. Liska2.10711811133WSep 3 · 17:45A. Snr1.83119561T. Liska1.8371111113WSep 1 · 12:23T. Liska1.5391111123A. Radkovsky2.381176101LSep 1 · 11:45L. Rulc1.67121189123T. Liska2.101041111102WSep 1 · 10:45A. Radkovsky2.10711571T. Liska1.6711611113
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