TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12445083
Played Aug 17Finished
Pavel Fencl
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711611116811––
Lukas Rulc
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Fencl above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Lukas Rulc at 66.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Fencl 6–16 Lukas Rulc Pavel Fencl has won 6 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Rulc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-16 in 22
Rulc
Correct
gap of 10 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fencl 1578 vs Rulc 1609
Rulc
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fencl 40% vs Rulc 20%
Fencl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fencl 50% vs Rulc 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fencl +1 · Rulc -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Rulc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFencl 2.50 / Rulc 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Rulc)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12445083
Fencl2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 7 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back17% 2 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Rulc1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 106 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it84% 47 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it68% 76 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFencl3wins
AwayRulc7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRulc leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFencln = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayRulc70%7 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fencl0Rulc10n = 10Rulc took 10 of 10
S2Fencl5Rulc5n = 10split evenly
S3Fencl6Rulc4n = 10Fencl took 6 of 10
S4Fencl2Rulc7n = 9Rulc took 7 of 9
S5Fencl3Rulc1n = 4Fencl took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFenclRulcF − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match38.143.2−5.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFenclRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 83 vs 348 / 69949.4%49.8%41 / 83 vs 348 / 699Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RulcFencl 2.50/Rulc 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 06:45P. Fencl—761181L. Rulc—11116113
WJun 30 · 05:45P. Fencl—311211113L. Rulc—11511682
LJun 16 · 07:15P. Fencl—311111162L. Rulc—119139113
LSep 7 · 10:15P. Fencl—8512101L. Rulc—111110123
LAug 17 · 10:15P. Fencl—7111261L. Rulc—11314113
WAug 15 · 13:45P. Fencl—1316118113L. Rulc—151461182
LAug 9 · 10:45P. Fencl—861191L. Rulc—11118113
LJul 12 · 10:15P. Fencl—1031191L. Rulc—12119113
LJun 30 · 06:45P. Fencl—9480L. Rulc—1111113
WJun 23 · 14:00P. Fencl—711118143L. Rulc—116511122
P. Fencl10
WSep 4 · 08:19J. Senk2.107960P. Fencl1.671111113WSep 4 · 07:15P. Fencl1.7311811113J. Senk2.00911781LSep 4 · 06:15P. Fencl2.201111115102M. Vyskocil1.61613911123LSep 4 · 05:15P. Fencl1.8011111010102T. Liska1.91761212123LAug 27 · 08:18P. Fencl1.73917781M. Ullman2.00111511113LAug 27 · 07:45V. Grubr2.1041115113P. Fencl1.671171341LAug 27 · 06:45M. Vyskocil1.9181111113P. Fencl1.80118331WAug 27 · 05:15M. Ullman1.738480P. Fencl2.001111113WAug 17 · 08:13P. Fencl2.101111113J. Rochowanski1.676920LAug 17 · 07:15J. Rochowanski1.73591211113P. Fencl2.00111110392
L. Rulc10
LSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:45L. Rulc1.67121189123T. Liska2.101041111102WSep 1 · 10:15V. Grubr1.834116101L. Rulc1.8311511123LSep 1 · 09:45A. Radkovsky2.101111113L. Rulc1.677660LAug 31 · 12:48M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Rulc1.447870WAug 31 · 11:45L. Rulc1.6711711113M. Kocvara2.10811671LAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102LAug 31 · 09:45M. Vyskocil2.75139114113L. Rulc1.40111181132LAug 29 · 13:05M. Makara1.801512113L. Rulc1.91131090WAug 29 · 12:00L. Rulc1.91118911113M. Makara1.8091111662
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