TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022470
Played Aug 27Finished
Miloslav Ullman
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811411811––––
Pavel Fencl
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:40 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMiloslav Ullman to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiloslav Ullman above · Pavel Fencl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Miloslav Ullman at 54.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Miloslav Ullman 5–3 Pavel Fencl Pavel Fencl has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:40What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ullman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Ullman
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ullman 1613 vs Fencl 1578
Ullman
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ullman 40% vs Fencl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ullman 40% vs Fencl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ullman +1 · Fencl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ullman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ullman form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUllman 1.73 / Fencl 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ullman)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13022470
Ullman1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 24 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it68% 17 of 25
Fencl2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 7 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back17% 2 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeUllman5wins
AwayFencl3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderUllman leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUllman80%4 of 5
AwayFencl66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ullman5Fencl3n = 8Ullman took 5 of 8
S2Ullman0Fencl8n = 8Fencl took 8 of 8
S3Ullman5Fencl3n = 8Ullman took 5 of 8
S4Ullman5Fencl2n = 7Ullman took 5 of 7
S5Ullman3Fencl1n = 4Ullman took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricUllmanFenclU − FBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match39.642.2−2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUllmanFenclBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 402 vs 41 / 8347%49.4%189 / 402 vs 41 / 83Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UllmanUllman 1.73/Fencl 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Ullman · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fencl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJul 8 · 05:30M. Ullman—12541122P. Fencl—1011119113
LJun 30 · 08:13M. Ullman—571181P. Fencl—11118113
WJun 30 · 07:15M. Ullman—11811113P. Fencl—411881
WJun 16 · 06:15M. Ullman—113119113P. Fencl—51181172
LAug 23 · 07:15M. Ullman—21270P. Fencl—1114113
WMay 3 · 11:45M. Ullman—12411113P. Fencl—1011861
WApr 21 · 08:28M. Ullman—139511153P. Fencl—1111117132
WApr 21 · 07:00M. Ullman—10111111113P. Fencl—12139772
M. Ullman10
LSep 2 · 20:48R. Pisa1.8311129113M. Ullman1.833101191LSep 2 · 19:15M. Ullman2.10911101172S. Rejent1.67116124113WSep 2 · 18:15M. Ullman1.831191112113R. Pisa1.8391161462WSep 2 · 17:15M. Ullman1.73711511113J. Dolezal2.0011611682WAug 27 · 08:18P. Fencl1.73917781M. Ullman2.00111511113LAug 27 · 07:15M. Ullman1.7311148392M. Vyskocil2.009121111113LAug 27 · 06:15M. Ullman1.83713118112V. Grubr1.831111411133WAug 10 · 08:43M. Makara1.7311711422M. Ullman2.00811611113LAug 10 · 07:45M. Ullman2.00113791M. Makara1.7361111113LAug 10 · 06:15L. Rulc1.73811712113M. Ullman2.00115111062
P. Fencl10
WSep 4 · 08:19J. Senk2.107960P. Fencl1.671111113WSep 4 · 07:15P. Fencl1.7311811113J. Senk2.00911781LSep 4 · 06:15P. Fencl2.201111115102M. Vyskocil1.61613911123LSep 4 · 05:15P. Fencl1.8011111010102T. Liska1.91761212123LAug 27 · 08:18P. Fencl1.73917781M. Ullman2.00111511113LAug 27 · 07:45V. Grubr2.1041115113P. Fencl1.671171341LAug 27 · 06:45M. Vyskocil1.9181111113P. Fencl1.80118331WAug 17 · 08:13P. Fencl2.101111113J. Rochowanski1.676920LAug 17 · 07:15J. Rochowanski1.73591211113P. Fencl2.00111110392LAug 17 · 06:45P. Fencl2.50761181L. Rulc1.5011116113
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