TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022549
Played Aug 27Finished
Miloslav Ullman
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
71113111148111113
Vojtech Grubr
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVojtech Grubr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiloslav Ullman above · Vojtech Grubr below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 100 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Vojtech Grubr at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Miloslav Ullman 9–11 Vojtech Grubr Miloslav Ullman has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Grubr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Grubr
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ullman 1590 vs Grubr 1622
Grubr
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ullman 40% vs Grubr 80%
Grubr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ullman 40% vs Grubr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ullman -1 · Grubr +3
Grubr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Grubr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grubr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUllman 1.83 / Grubr 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Grubr)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13022549
Ullman1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Grubr1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUllman4wins
AwayGrubr6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGrubr leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUllman100%3 of 3
AwayGrubr85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ullman3Grubr7n = 10Grubr took 7 of 10
S2Ullman9Grubr1n = 10Ullman took 9 of 10
S3Ullman6Grubr4n = 10Ullman took 6 of 10
S4Ullman1Grubr6n = 7Grubr took 6 of 7
S5Ullman1Grubr3n = 4Grubr took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUllmanGrubrU − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.541.4+0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUllmanGrubrBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 402 vs 228 / 45446.5%50.2%187 / 402 vs 228 / 454Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.140.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrubrUllman 1.83/Grubr 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Grubr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Grubr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 06:15M. Ullman—713118112V. Grubr—1111411133
LJun 4 · 17:45M. Ullman—8880V. Grubr—1111113
LMay 5 · 05:15M. Ullman—7171191V. Grubr—111513113
WMar 24 · 18:30M. Ullman—1112113V. Grubr—71060
LMar 11 · 09:00M. Ullman—1011581V. Grubr—12411113
LJan 19 · 20:30M. Ullman—61411772V. Grubr—1112811113
WJan 14 · 07:15M. Ullman—1211143V. Grubr—107120
WNov 20 · 09:29M. Ullman—141167113V. Grubr—127111182
LNov 20 · 08:00M. Ullman—7111210152V. Grubr—1181012173
WOct 29 · 08:15M. Ullman—91112113V. Grubr—1151051
M. Ullman10
LSep 2 · 20:48R. Pisa1.8311129113M. Ullman1.833101191LSep 2 · 19:15M. Ullman2.10911101172S. Rejent1.67116124113WSep 2 · 18:15M. Ullman1.831191112113R. Pisa1.8391161462WSep 2 · 17:15M. Ullman1.73711511113J. Dolezal2.0011611682WAug 27 · 08:18P. Fencl1.73917781M. Ullman2.00111511113LAug 27 · 07:15M. Ullman1.7311148392M. Vyskocil2.009121111113LAug 27 · 05:15M. Ullman1.738480P. Fencl2.001111113WAug 10 · 08:43M. Makara1.7311711422M. Ullman2.00811611113LAug 10 · 07:45M. Ullman2.00113791M. Makara1.7361111113LAug 10 · 06:15L. Rulc1.73811712113M. Ullman2.00115111062
V. Grubr10
LSep 2 · 12:13A. Radkovsky2.1011191217113V. Grubr1.67817141992LSep 2 · 11:15V. Grubr1.53118281M. Vyskocil2.3891111113WSep 2 · 10:15V. Grubr1.67117511113J. Dolezal2.1061111972LSep 2 · 09:15V. Grubr1.61691181A. Radkovsky2.2011117113WSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:15V. Grubr1.67611511113A. Radkovsky2.1011611792LSep 1 · 10:15V. Grubr1.834116101L. Rulc1.8311511123WSep 1 · 09:15V. Grubr1.911111113T. Liska1.809990LAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 15:45A. Radkovsky1.831011371V. Grubr1.8312911113
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