TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061848
Played Sep 2Finished
Miloslav Ullman
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711116511116118
Josef Dolezal
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Dolezal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiloslav Ullman above · Josef Dolezal below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 87 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Josef Dolezal at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Miloslav Ullman 3–0 Josef Dolezal Josef Dolezal has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:33What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ullman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Ullman
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ullman 1602 vs Dolezal 1609
Dolezal
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ullman 40% vs Dolezal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ullman 30% vs Dolezal 60%
Dolezal
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ullman +1 · Dolezal +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ullman) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ullman form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUllman 1.73 / Dolezal 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ullman)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13061848
Ullman1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 23 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it64% 16 of 25
Dolezal2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 36 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back22% 9 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeUllman3wins
AwayDolezal0wins
3 of 3 to a deciderUllman leads 3–0, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ullman1Dolezal2n = 3Dolezal took 2 of 3
S2Ullman1Dolezal2n = 3Dolezal took 2 of 3
S3Ullman2Dolezal1n = 3Ullman took 2 of 3
S4Ullman2Dolezal1n = 3Ullman took 2 of 3
S5Ullman3Dolezal0n = 3Ullman took 3 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home3100%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricUllmanDolezalU − DBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match49.038.7+10.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUllmanDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 403 vs 56 / 12346.7%45.5%188 / 403 vs 56 / 123Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UllmanUllman 1.73/Dolezal 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ullman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ullman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 2 · 17:15M. Ullman—711511113J. Dolezal—11611682
WJun 5 · 19:30M. Ullman—119119113J. Dolezal—61161132
WJun 4 · 19:15M. Ullman—1171111113J. Dolezal—13113282
M. Ullman10
LSep 2 · 20:48R. Pisa1.8311129113M. Ullman1.833101191LSep 2 · 19:15M. Ullman2.10911101172S. Rejent1.67116124113WSep 2 · 18:15M. Ullman1.831191112113R. Pisa1.8391161462WAug 27 · 08:18P. Fencl1.73917781M. Ullman2.00111511113LAug 27 · 07:15M. Ullman1.7311148392M. Vyskocil2.009121111113LAug 27 · 06:15M. Ullman1.83713118112V. Grubr1.831111411133LAug 27 · 05:15M. Ullman1.738480P. Fencl2.001111113WAug 10 · 08:43M. Makara1.7311711422M. Ullman2.00811611113LAug 10 · 07:45M. Ullman2.00113791M. Makara1.7361111113LAug 10 · 06:15L. Rulc1.73811712113M. Ullman2.00115111062
J. Dolezal10
WSep 2 · 20:20J. Dolezal2.101111011113S. Rejent1.6741112732LSep 2 · 19:45R. Pisa1.7311118113J. Dolezal2.00381181LSep 2 · 18:45S. Rejent1.67111114123J. Dolezal2.1013212101WSep 2 · 12:44J. Dolezal1.831111910113M. Vyskocil1.8384111282WSep 2 · 11:45J. Dolezal1.5311511133A. Radkovsky2.388116111LSep 2 · 10:15V. Grubr1.67117511113J. Dolezal2.1061111972LSep 2 · 09:45M. Vyskocil1.9111115113J. Dolezal1.80781181LAug 29 · 20:53J. Dolezal2.0011911692V. Burylov1.73911311113WAug 29 · 19:45M. Makara1.731212101072J. Dolezal2.0010101212113WAug 29 · 18:45V. Burylov1.6741181172J. Dolezal2.10115118113
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