TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037441
Played Aug 29Finished
Michal Makara
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210121010121012711
Josef Dolezal
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Makara to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMichal Makara above · Josef Dolezal below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 106 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Michal Makara at 54.0%
106 points played in total.
H2H Michal Makara 5–4 Josef Dolezal Josef Dolezal has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:30What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Makara
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makara 1646 vs Dolezal 1618
Makara
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makara 40% vs Dolezal 60%
Dolezal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makara 50% vs Dolezal 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Makara -2 · Dolezal +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Makara) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakara 1.73 / Dolezal 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Makara)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13037441
Makara1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 42 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it67% 30 of 45
Dolezal2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 32 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMakara5wins
AwayDolezal4wins
5 of 9 to a deciderMakara leads 5–4, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakara80%4 of 5
AwayDolezal75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makara5Dolezal4n = 9Makara took 5 of 9
S2Makara4Dolezal5n = 9Dolezal took 5 of 9
S3Makara6Dolezal3n = 9Makara took 6 of 9
S4Makara4Dolezal3n = 7Makara took 4 of 7
S5Makara2Dolezal3n = 5Dolezal took 3 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricMakaraDolezalM − DBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match42.438.9+3.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakaraDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime486 / 1009 vs 53 / 11648.2%45.7%486 / 1009 vs 53 / 116Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MakaraMakara 1.73/Dolezal 2.00
Miss
What we said
54.9%
Makara · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 29 · 11:00M. Makara—11711113J. Dolezal—511751
LAug 14 · 10:45M. Makara—1291111112J. Dolezal—141188133
WJul 3 · 19:45M. Makara—121177133J. Dolezal—1081111112
WJun 5 · 18:30M. Makara—11116113J. Dolezal—951161
WJun 1 · 07:15M. Makara—1311113J. Dolezal—11670
LMay 31 · 12:29M. Makara—98111192J. Dolezal—111176113
LMay 31 · 10:00M. Makara—11611982J. Dolezal—311911113
WApr 22 · 13:45M. Makara—611117113J. Dolezal—11461162
LApr 19 · 10:00M. Makara—9880J. Dolezal—1111113
M. Makara10
WSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940LSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 10:30V. Burylov1.611171114113M. Makara2.2061171692LSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772LSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113LSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113LSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113WSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113
J. Dolezal10
WSep 2 · 20:20J. Dolezal2.101111011113S. Rejent1.6741112732LSep 2 · 19:45R. Pisa1.7311118113J. Dolezal2.00381181LSep 2 · 18:45S. Rejent1.67111114123J. Dolezal2.1013212101LSep 2 · 17:15M. Ullman1.73711511113J. Dolezal2.0011611682WSep 2 · 12:44J. Dolezal1.831111910113M. Vyskocil1.8384111282WSep 2 · 11:45J. Dolezal1.5311511133A. Radkovsky2.388116111LSep 2 · 10:15V. Grubr1.67117511113J. Dolezal2.1061111972LSep 2 · 09:45M. Vyskocil1.9111115113J. Dolezal1.80781181LAug 29 · 20:53J. Dolezal2.0011911692V. Burylov1.73911311113WAug 29 · 18:45V. Burylov1.6741181172J. Dolezal2.10115118113
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