TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067608
Played Sep 3Finished
Michal Makara
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113311119911––
Lukas Heinzl
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:19 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingMichal Makara above · Lukas Heinzl below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 58.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Michal Makara 13–19 Lukas Heinzl Michal Makara has won 13 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Heinzl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-19 in 32
Heinzl
Correct
gap of 6 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makara 1698 vs Heinzl 1759
Heinzl
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makara 40% vs Heinzl 60%
Heinzl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makara 50% vs Heinzl 70%
Heinzl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Makara -1 · Heinzl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Heinzl)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakara 2.20 / Heinzl 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Heinzl)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13067608
Makara2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 174 of 378
Down 0–1, comes back25% 49 of 193
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 85
Heinzl1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 158 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it95% 74 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it77% 115 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMakara4wins
AwayHeinzl6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakara40%2 of 5
AwayHeinzl60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makara5Heinzl5n = 10split evenly
S2Makara5Heinzl5n = 10split evenly
S3Makara4Heinzl6n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S4Makara2Heinzl6n = 8Heinzl took 6 of 8
S5Makara3Heinzl3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMakaraHeinzlM − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.948.0−6.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakaraHeinzlBasisWin rate · lifetime495 / 1027 vs 354 / 64548.2%54.9%495 / 1027 vs 354 / 645Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlMakara 2.20/Heinzl 1.61
Hit
What we said
58.9%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 20:24M. Makara—1213113102L. Heinzl—14111111123
LAug 29 · 18:15M. Makara—111250L. Heinzl—1314113
WAug 28 · 06:30M. Makara—1171910113L. Heinzl—911171272
LAug 24 · 06:45M. Makara—115127152L. Heinzl—5111011173
LAug 10 · 06:45M. Makara—137661L. Heinzl—111111113
LAug 2 · 11:15M. Makara—7930L. Heinzl—1111113
WAug 1 · 11:15M. Makara—111146123L. Heinzl—991111102
WJul 10 · 07:45M. Makara—611117133L. Heinzl—118811112
WJun 7 · 12:59M. Makara—71211143L. Heinzl—11109121
LJun 7 · 11:45M. Makara—111212932L. Heinzl—9101411113
M. Makara10
WSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940LSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 10:30V. Burylov1.611171114113M. Makara2.2061171692LSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772LSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113LSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113WSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113LSep 1 · 06:45M. Makara1.8351350V. Burylov1.831115113
L. Heinzl10
LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121WSep 2 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.731111113L. Adam2.008960WSep 2 · 05:45L. Heinzl1.30111179113O. Mezera3.4069111162
Upcoming Matches
M. Makara
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