TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060702
Played Sep 2Finished
Matej Kovarik
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1189111191412––
Lukas Heinzl
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:27 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatej Kovarik above · Lukas Heinzl below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 85 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 62.5%
85 points played in total.
H2H Matej Kovarik 1–2 Lukas Heinzl Matej Kovarik has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:27What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Heinzl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovarik 1608 vs Heinzl 1727
Heinzl
Wrong
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovarik 0% vs Heinzl 80%
Heinzl
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovarik 30% vs Heinzl 70%
Heinzl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovarik -5 · Heinzl +2
Kovarik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Heinzl) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heinzl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovarik 2.50 / Heinzl 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Heinzl)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13060702
Kovarik2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 14 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Heinzl1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 159 of 270
Up 2–0, closes it95% 75 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it76% 116 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKovarik1wins
AwayHeinzl2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderHeinzl leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovarik1Heinzl2n = 3Heinzl took 2 of 3
S2Kovarik2Heinzl1n = 3Kovarik took 2 of 3
S3Kovarik2Heinzl1n = 3Kovarik took 2 of 3
S4Kovarik2Heinzl1n = 3Kovarik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKovarikHeinzlK − HBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match42.744.0−1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovarikHeinzlBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 103 vs 355 / 64949.5%54.7%51 / 103 vs 355 / 649Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlKovarik 2.50/Heinzl 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovarik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik—11911143L. Heinzl—8119121
LApr 10 · 07:15M. Kovarik—81111542L. Heinzl—114811113
LJan 23 · 06:45M. Kovarik—91171162L. Heinzl—119115113
M. Kovarik10
LSep 2 · 06:15M. Kovarik1.5311117772O. Mezera2.38831111113LSep 2 · 05:15M. Kovarik2.2576100L. Adam1.571111123LAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191LAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113LAug 26 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.20711101172L. Adam1.61119127113LAug 26 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.80101111992V. Grubr1.91129811113WAug 19 · 08:18M. Kovarik2.101111105113L. Rulc1.6797121172WAug 19 · 07:45M. Kovarik2.1011117113V. Burylov1.67791141WAug 19 · 06:15L. Rulc1.578811101M. Kovarik2.2511118123LAug 19 · 05:45V. Grubr1.831111113M. Kovarik1.837990
L. Heinzl10
WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113WSep 2 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.731111113L. Adam2.008960WSep 2 · 05:45L. Heinzl1.30111179113O. Mezera3.4069111162LSep 1 · 08:49V. Burylov1.8391111113L. Heinzl1.83116841
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