TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12456671
Played Aug 19Finished
Matej Kovarik
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117119711114––
Volodymyr Burylov
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Burylov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatej Kovarik above · Volodymyr Burylov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 71 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Volodymyr Burylov at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Matej Kovarik 1–0 Volodymyr Burylov Volodymyr Burylov has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Burylov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kovarik 1652 vs Burylov 1683
Burylov
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovarik 40% vs Burylov 80%
Burylov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovarik 50% vs Burylov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovarik +1 · Burylov +4
Burylov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Burylov) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burylov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovarik 2.10 / Burylov 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Burylov)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12456671
Kovarik2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 13 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back20% 4 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Burylov1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite39% won 38 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it52% 23 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKovarik1wins
AwayBurylov0wins
Kovarik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKovarikBurylovK − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match40.031.0+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovarikBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 96 vs 174 / 34852.1%50%50 / 96 vs 174 / 348Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BurylovKovarik 2.10/Burylov 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Burylov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovarik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 19 · 07:45M. Kovarik—11117113V. Burylov—791141
M. Kovarik10
WSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121LSep 2 · 06:15M. Kovarik1.5311117772O. Mezera2.38831111113LSep 2 · 05:15M. Kovarik2.2576100L. Adam1.571111123LAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191LAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113LAug 26 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.20711101172L. Adam1.61119127113LAug 26 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.80101111992V. Grubr1.91129811113WAug 19 · 08:18M. Kovarik2.101111105113L. Rulc1.6797121172WAug 19 · 06:15L. Rulc1.578811101M. Kovarik2.2511118123LAug 19 · 05:45V. Grubr1.831111113M. Kovarik1.837990
V. Burylov10
WSep 6 · 17:00V. Burylov1.831111113D. Gasparovic1.838860WSep 6 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.80111011992V. Burylov1.91812911113WSep 6 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.73136128112V. Burylov2.0011111011133LSep 6 · 13:15S. Rejent1.91691111153V. Burylov1.80111168132WSep 4 · 20:23V. Burylov1.7311911113A. Snr2.00611891WSep 4 · 19:45J. Sr1.9111117662V. Burylov1.80531111113LSep 4 · 18:45D. Gasparovic1.73111110143V. Burylov2.006912121LSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940LSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 10:30V. Burylov1.611171114113M. Makara2.2061171692
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