TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015185
Played Aug 26Finished
Matej Kovarik
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111191012117711
Lukas Adam
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Adam to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Kovarik above · Lukas Adam below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 96 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Lukas Adam at 58.7%
96 points played in total.
H2H Matej Kovarik 2–4 Lukas Adam Matej Kovarik has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Adam
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Adam
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovarik 1612 vs Adam 1709
Adam
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovarik 60% vs Adam 100%
Adam
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovarik 50% vs Adam 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovarik -1 · Adam +5
Adam
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Adam)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovarik 2.20 / Adam 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Adam)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13015185
Kovarik2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 13 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Adam1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 63 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it88% 44 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKovarik2wins
AwayAdam4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderAdam leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovarikn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayAdam66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovarik0Adam6n = 6Adam took 6 of 6
S2Kovarik4Adam2n = 6Kovarik took 4 of 6
S3Kovarik2Adam4n = 6Adam took 4 of 6
S4Kovarik2Adam3n = 5Adam took 3 of 5
S5Kovarik2Adam1n = 3Kovarik took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricKovarikAdamK − ABasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set06−6of 6Avg pointsper match40.344.7−4.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovarikAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 100 vs 273 / 53350%51.2%50 / 100 vs 273 / 533Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamKovarik 2.20/Adam 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 26 · 06:15M. Kovarik—711101172L. Adam—119127113
LApr 16 · 08:50M. Kovarik—54120L. Adam—1111143
WApr 16 · 06:15M. Kovarik—4131111123L. Adam—111598102
WFeb 28 · 09:50M. Kovarik—811118113L. Adam—11841172
LFeb 28 · 08:45M. Kovarik—1012691L. Adam—121011113
LJan 8 · 07:30M. Kovarik—8118111L. Adam—11911133
M. Kovarik10
WSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121LSep 2 · 06:15M. Kovarik1.5311117772O. Mezera2.38831111113LSep 2 · 05:15M. Kovarik2.2576100L. Adam1.571111123LAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191LAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113LAug 26 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.80101111992V. Grubr1.91129811113WAug 19 · 08:18M. Kovarik2.101111105113L. Rulc1.6797121172WAug 19 · 07:45M. Kovarik2.1011117113V. Burylov1.67791141WAug 19 · 06:15L. Rulc1.578811101M. Kovarik2.2511118123LAug 19 · 05:45V. Grubr1.831111113M. Kovarik1.837990
L. Adam10
LSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113WSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480LSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 09:30V. Burylov1.801141151L. Adam1.9181113113WSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 2 · 05:15M. Kovarik2.2576100L. Adam1.571111123
Upcoming Matches
M. Kovarik
Nothing scheduled
L. Adam
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