TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015138
Played Aug 26Finished
Matej Kovarik
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111315511––––
Michal Stibor
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Stibor to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Kovarik above · Michal Stibor below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 64 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Michal Stibor at 63.5%
64 points played in total.
H2H Matej Kovarik 2–5 Michal Stibor Matej Kovarik has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:40What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stibor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Stibor
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovarik 1612 vs Stibor 1720
Stibor
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovarik 60% vs Stibor 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovarik 50% vs Stibor 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovarik -2 · Stibor +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Stibor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovarik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovarik 2.50 / Stibor 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Stibor)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13015138
Kovarik2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 13 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Stibor1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 73 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it84% 46 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKovarik2wins
AwayStibor5wins
1 of 7 to a deciderStibor leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovarikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStibor83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovarik1Stibor6n = 7Stibor took 6 of 7
S2Kovarik3Stibor4n = 7Stibor took 4 of 7
S3Kovarik4Stibor3n = 7Kovarik took 4 of 7
S4Kovarik0Stibor4n = 4Stibor took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricKovarikStiborK − SBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match33.336.9−3.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovarikStiborBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 100 vs 169 / 32450%52.2%50 / 100 vs 169 / 324Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StiborKovarik 2.50/Stibor 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Stibor · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stibor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 26 · 08:23M. Kovarik—7141191M. Stibor—11164113
LAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik—91350M. Stibor—1115113
LApr 10 · 05:45M. Kovarik—3490M. Stibor—1111113
LMar 25 · 09:48M. Kovarik—911851M. Stibor—11911113
WMar 25 · 07:45M. Kovarik—812116113M. Stibor—111061162
LMar 18 · 09:13M. Kovarik—681291M. Stibor—111110113
WMar 18 · 08:15M. Kovarik—1111113M. Stibor—8630
M. Kovarik10
WSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121LSep 2 · 06:15M. Kovarik1.5311117772O. Mezera2.38831111113LSep 2 · 05:15M. Kovarik2.2576100L. Adam1.571111123LAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191LAug 26 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.20711101172L. Adam1.61119127113LAug 26 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.80101111992V. Grubr1.91129811113WAug 19 · 08:18M. Kovarik2.101111105113L. Rulc1.6797121172WAug 19 · 07:45M. Kovarik2.1011117113V. Burylov1.67791141WAug 19 · 06:15L. Rulc1.578811101M. Kovarik2.2511118123LAug 19 · 05:45V. Grubr1.831111113M. Kovarik1.837990
M. Stibor10
LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113WSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113WSep 3 · 05:15L. Adam2.1021111562M. Stibor1.67117511113LAug 31 · 12:18M. Vyskocil1.67441111133M. Stibor2.10111199112LAug 31 · 11:15M. Stibor1.738770M. Vyskocil2.001111113WAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102WAug 31 · 09:15M. Stibor1.501181411113M. Kocvara2.50131112762WAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191WAug 26 · 06:45M. Stibor1.61291111113V. Grubr2.2011114862
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