TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015031
Played Aug 26Finished
Michal Stibor
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
211911114118116
Vojtech Grubr
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Stibor to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Vojtech Grubr below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 84 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Michal Stibor at 65.7%
84 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 10–8 Vojtech Grubr Vojtech Grubr has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:40What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Stibor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Stibor
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1693 vs Grubr 1573
Stibor
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 40% vs Grubr 20%
Stibor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 50% vs Grubr 20%
Stibor
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor -1 · Grubr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Stibor) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grubr form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 1.61 / Grubr 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Stibor)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13015031
Stibor1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 70 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it83% 44 of 53
Grubr2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 65 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back29% 25 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStibor6wins
AwayGrubr4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStibor leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStibor75%3 of 4
AwayGrubr50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor4Grubr6n = 10Grubr took 6 of 10
S2Stibor8Grubr2n = 10Stibor took 8 of 10
S3Stibor6Grubr4n = 10Stibor took 6 of 10
S4Stibor3Grubr4n = 7Grubr took 4 of 7
S5Stibor2Grubr2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStiborGrubrS − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.939.3+2.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborGrubrBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 321 vs 224 / 45151.7%49.7%166 / 321 vs 224 / 451Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StiborStibor 1.61/Grubr 2.20
Hit
What we said
60.9%
Stibor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stibor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 11 · 08:53M. Stibor—1111113V. Grubr—7780
LJun 11 · 05:45M. Stibor—811811122V. Grubr—117119143
WMay 6 · 12:59M. Stibor—81113113V. Grubr—1191151
WMay 6 · 11:45M. Stibor—1011169113V. Grubr—126141172
WApr 22 · 08:48M. Stibor—711115113V. Grubr—11591152
LApr 22 · 07:45M. Stibor—6117101V. Grubr—11911123
LApr 17 · 08:22M. Stibor—119111042V. Grubr—611412113
WApr 17 · 07:15M. Stibor—141115113V. Grubr—1281791
WApr 10 · 07:45M. Stibor—1114113V. Grubr—81260
LApr 8 · 12:14M. Stibor—9790V. Grubr—1111113
M. Stibor10
LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113WSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113WSep 3 · 05:15L. Adam2.1021111562M. Stibor1.67117511113LAug 31 · 12:18M. Vyskocil1.67441111133M. Stibor2.10111199112LAug 31 · 11:15M. Stibor1.738770M. Vyskocil2.001111113WAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102WAug 31 · 09:15M. Stibor1.501181411113M. Kocvara2.50131112762WAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191WAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113
V. Grubr10
LSep 2 · 12:13A. Radkovsky2.1011191217113V. Grubr1.67817141992LSep 2 · 11:15V. Grubr1.53118281M. Vyskocil2.3891111113WSep 2 · 10:15V. Grubr1.67117511113J. Dolezal2.1061111972LSep 2 · 09:15V. Grubr1.61691181A. Radkovsky2.2011117113WSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:15V. Grubr1.67611511113A. Radkovsky2.1011611792LSep 1 · 10:15V. Grubr1.834116101L. Rulc1.8311511123WSep 1 · 09:15V. Grubr1.911111113T. Liska1.809990LAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 15:45A. Radkovsky1.831011371V. Grubr1.8312911113
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