TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049632
Played Aug 31Finished
Michal Stibor
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11138111412117116
Martin Kocvara
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Stibor to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Martin Kocvara below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 104 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Michal Stibor at 62.5%
104 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 2–2 Martin Kocvara Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:07What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stibor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1720 vs Kocvara 1749
Kocvara
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 80% vs Kocvara 60%
Stibor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 70% vs Kocvara 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor +3 · Kocvara +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Stibor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocvara form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 1.50 / Kocvara 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Stibor)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13049632
Stibor1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 73 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it84% 46 of 55
Kocvara2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog58% won 46 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back49% 20 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back28% 5 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStibor2wins
AwayKocvara2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStibor66.7%2 of 3
AwayKocvaran = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor3Kocvara1n = 4Stibor took 3 of 4
S2Stibor2Kocvara2n = 4split evenly
S3Stibor3Kocvara1n = 4Stibor took 3 of 4
S4Stibor1Kocvara2n = 3Kocvara took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStiborKocvaraS − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match36.540.0−3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborKocvaraBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 320 vs 70 / 12052.2%58.3%167 / 320 vs 70 / 120Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StiborStibor 1.50/Kocvara 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Stibor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stibor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 20 · 07:45M. Stibor—12811113M. Kocvara—1011681
WJul 2 · 05:15M. Stibor—1111123M. Kocvara—89100
LJun 18 · 05:45M. Stibor—671481M. Kocvara—111112113
LJun 8 · 11:15M. Stibor—11139022M. Kocvara—9111111113
M. Stibor10
LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113WSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113WSep 3 · 05:15L. Adam2.1021111562M. Stibor1.67117511113LAug 31 · 12:18M. Vyskocil1.67441111133M. Stibor2.10111199112LAug 31 · 11:15M. Stibor1.738770M. Vyskocil2.001111113WAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102WAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191WAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113WAug 26 · 06:45M. Stibor1.61291111113V. Grubr2.2011114862
M. Kocvara10
WSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481LSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480WSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113LSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113
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