TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067177
Played Sep 3Finished
Lukas Adam
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
211117115511611
Michal Stibor
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Stibor to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Adam above · Michal Stibor below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 80 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Michal Stibor at 55.8%
80 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 21–24 Michal Stibor Lukas Adam has won 21 of their 45 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stibor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-24 in 45
Stibor
Correct
gap of 3 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1688 vs Stibor 1709
Stibor
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 40% vs Stibor 60%
Stibor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 30% vs Stibor 70%
Stibor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam -2 · Stibor -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Stibor)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 2.10 / Stibor 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Stibor)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13067177
Adam2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 53 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Stibor1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 75 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it84% 46 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdam5wins
AwayStibor5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdam66.7%4 of 6
AwayStibor75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam6Stibor4n = 10Adam took 6 of 10
S2Adam4Stibor6n = 10Stibor took 6 of 10
S3Adam3Stibor7n = 10Stibor took 7 of 10
S4Adam5Stibor5n = 10split evenly
S5Adam4Stibor2n = 6Adam took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamStiborA − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.343.9−2.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamStiborBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 539 vs 169 / 32451%52.2%275 / 539 vs 169 / 324Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StiborAdam 2.10/Stibor 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Stibor · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stibor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 05:45L. Adam—11711113M. Stibor—711981
LAug 20 · 07:45L. Adam—711781M. Stibor—11611113
WAug 19 · 09:45L. Adam—511411113M. Stibor—11711892
LJul 28 · 11:45L. Adam—126121182M. Stibor—1411105113
WJul 21 · 06:15L. Adam—166411113M. Stibor—141111322
WJul 14 · 06:30L. Adam—111166113M. Stibor—39111162
LJun 18 · 08:43L. Adam—111166102M. Stibor—861111123
LJun 18 · 07:45L. Adam—116561M. Stibor—51111113
LJun 11 · 07:15L. Adam—491761M. Stibor—111115113
WMay 28 · 07:45L. Adam—156411123M. Stibor—1311118102
L. Adam10
LSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113WSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480LSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 09:30V. Burylov1.801141151L. Adam1.9181113113WSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772
M. Stibor10
LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113WSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113LAug 31 · 12:18M. Vyskocil1.67441111133M. Stibor2.10111199112LAug 31 · 11:15M. Stibor1.738770M. Vyskocil2.001111113WAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102WAug 31 · 09:15M. Stibor1.501181411113M. Kocvara2.50131112762WAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191WAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113WAug 26 · 06:45M. Stibor1.61291111113V. Grubr2.2011114862
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