TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060604
Played Sep 2Finished
Matej Kovarik
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118113711711711
Ondrej Mezera
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMatej Kovarik to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatej Kovarik above · Ondrej Mezera below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 87 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Matej Kovarik at 60.8%
87 points played in total.
H2H Matej Kovarik 1–2 Ondrej Mezera Matej Kovarik has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:55What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kovarik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovarik 1608 vs Mezera 1598
Kovarik
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovarik 0% vs Mezera 20%
Mezera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovarik 40% vs Mezera 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovarik -5 · Mezera -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kovarik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mezera form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovarik 1.53 / Mezera 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Kovarik)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13060604
Kovarik1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 12 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it60% 6 of 10
Mezera2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 115 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back32% 46 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back17% 13 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKovarik1wins
AwayMezera2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderMezera leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovarik2Mezera1n = 3Kovarik took 2 of 3
S2Kovarik2Mezera1n = 3Kovarik took 2 of 3
S3Kovarik1Mezera2n = 3Mezera took 2 of 3
S4Kovarik1Mezera2n = 3Mezera took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKovarikMezeraK − MBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match39.338.0+1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovarikMezeraBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 103 vs 415 / 81949.5%50.7%51 / 103 vs 415 / 819Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovarikKovarik 1.53/Mezera 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Kovarik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mezera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 2 · 06:15M. Kovarik—11117772O. Mezera—831111113
WDec 19 · 07:30M. Kovarik—81111113O. Mezera—119751
LSep 19 · 11:15M. Kovarik—118871O. Mezera—51111113
M. Kovarik10
WSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121LSep 2 · 05:15M. Kovarik2.2576100L. Adam1.571111123LAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191LAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113LAug 26 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.20711101172L. Adam1.61119127113LAug 26 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.80101111992V. Grubr1.91129811113WAug 19 · 08:18M. Kovarik2.101111105113L. Rulc1.6797121172WAug 19 · 07:45M. Kovarik2.1011117113V. Burylov1.67791141WAug 19 · 06:15L. Rulc1.578811101M. Kovarik2.2511118123LAug 19 · 05:45V. Grubr1.831111113M. Kovarik1.837990
O. Mezera10
LSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113LSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113LSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:45O. Mezera2.00115811113J. Senk1.7341111862LSep 3 · 16:18O. Mezera2.7531111552J. Sr1.40116911113LSep 3 · 15:45S. Rejent1.531191111113O. Mezera2.3891141342
Upcoming Matches
M. Kovarik
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O. Mezera
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