TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067622
Played Sep 3Finished
Stepan Rejent
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1199111141113114
Ondrej Mezera
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:29 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeStepan Rejent to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingStepan Rejent above · Ondrej Mezera below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 94 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Stepan Rejent at 62.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Rejent 16–12 Ondrej Mezera Ondrej Mezera has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:29What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rejent
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-12 in 28
Rejent
Correct
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rejent 1648 vs Mezera 1617
Rejent
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rejent 60% vs Mezera 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rejent 40% vs Mezera 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rejent +1 · Mezera +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Rejent)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mezera form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRejent 1.53 / Mezera 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Rejent)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13067622
Rejent1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 83 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it75% 57 of 76
Mezera2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 114 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back32% 46 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back17% 13 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRejent6wins
AwayMezera4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRejent leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRejent50%3 of 6
AwayMezera25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rejent6Mezera4n = 10Rejent took 6 of 10
S2Rejent6Mezera4n = 10Rejent took 6 of 10
S3Rejent4Mezera6n = 10Mezera took 6 of 10
S4Rejent6Mezera4n = 10Rejent took 6 of 10
S5Rejent2Mezera2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRejentMezeraR − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.940.1+2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRejentMezeraBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 771 vs 415 / 81747.6%50.8%367 / 771 vs 415 / 817Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.940.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RejentRejent 1.53/Mezera 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Rejent · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rejent won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 16:14S. Rejent—1187151O. Mezera—81111173
LAug 26 · 14:15S. Rejent—911871O. Mezera—11811113
WAug 24 · 16:49S. Rejent—11113113O. Mezera—681171
WAug 24 · 13:45S. Rejent—13811113O. Mezera—1111651
WAug 19 · 16:19S. Rejent—771112113O. Mezera—111171092
LAug 19 · 15:15S. Rejent—11118772O. Mezera—451111113
LAug 11 · 15:15S. Rejent—118118102O. Mezera—911911123
WAug 10 · 14:15S. Rejent—11126113O. Mezera—4101151
WJul 29 · 16:13S. Rejent—611811113O. Mezera—11711832
WJul 29 · 13:15S. Rejent—101511113O. Mezera—1213651
S. Rejent10
LSep 6 · 16:29J. Chalupa1.4411812113S. Rejent2.638111071LSep 6 · 15:15S. Rejent2.63511951D. Gasparovic1.4411611113LSep 6 · 14:15S. Rejent2.634130J. Chalupa1.441111113WSep 6 · 13:15S. Rejent1.91691111153V. Burylov1.80111168132LSep 3 · 16:48S. Rejent1.504640A. Radkovsky2.501111113WSep 3 · 14:15A. Radkovsky2.2059100S. Rejent1.611111123LSep 3 · 13:45J. Sr1.441111113S. Rejent2.635960LSep 2 · 20:20J. Dolezal2.101111011113S. Rejent1.6741112732WSep 2 · 19:15M. Ullman2.10911101172S. Rejent1.67116124113WSep 2 · 18:45S. Rejent1.67111114123J. Dolezal2.1013212101
O. Mezera10
LSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113LSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113LSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:45O. Mezera2.00115811113J. Senk1.7341111862LSep 3 · 16:18O. Mezera2.7531111552J. Sr1.40116911113WSep 3 · 14:45J. Sr1.57511111092O. Mezera2.25118812113
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