TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079343
Played Sep 5Finished
Lukas Veigl
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1164111155111415
Ondrej Mezera
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Veigl to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Veigl above · Ondrej Mezera below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 14-15
Point 93 set 5, 14-15 — our read held Lukas Veigl at 62.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Veigl 8–6 Ondrej Mezera Ondrej Mezera has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Veigl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Veigl
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Veigl 1676 vs Mezera 1649
Veigl
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Veigl 80% vs Mezera 60%
Veigl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Veigl 60% vs Mezera 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Veigl +1 · Mezera +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Veigl) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mezera form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeigl 1.53 / Mezera 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Veigl)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13079343
Veigl1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 59 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Mezera2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 115 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back32% 46 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back17% 13 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVeigl6wins
AwayMezera4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVeigl leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeigl50%3 of 6
AwayMezera25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Veigl6Mezera4n = 10Veigl took 6 of 10
S2Veigl3Mezera7n = 10Mezera took 7 of 10
S3Veigl9Mezera1n = 10Veigl took 9 of 10
S4Veigl6Mezera3n = 9Veigl took 6 of 9
S5Veigl2Mezera4n = 6Mezera took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeiglMezeraV − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.142.2+2.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeiglMezeraBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 531 vs 415 / 81852.2%50.7%277 / 531 vs 415 / 818Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.540.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VeiglVeigl 1.53/Mezera 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Veigl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mezera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl—114115142O. Mezera—611511153
LJul 30 · 06:45L. Veigl—813111162O. Mezera—111577113
WJul 29 · 14:15L. Veigl—81111113O. Mezera—117891
WJul 22 · 15:15L. Veigl—11611123O. Mezera—8115101
WJul 9 · 14:15L. Veigl—101111153O. Mezera—1268131
WJul 8 · 14:15L. Veigl—119611133O. Mezera—311116112
LJul 7 · 16:14L. Veigl—14911582O. Mezera—1211311113
WJul 7 · 13:15L. Veigl—6111111113O. Mezera—11136862
WJun 25 · 20:53L. Veigl—1213113O. Mezera—101180
LJun 25 · 18:15L. Veigl—12511992O. Mezera—1011911113
L. Veigl10
WSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361WSep 5 · 20:13J. Senk2.10411491L. Veigl1.6711711113WSep 5 · 18:15L. Veigl1.801111113J. Senk1.917890LSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113WSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WSep 5 · 07:45L. Veigl2.10311811113J. Chalupa1.6711911982WSep 5 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.50811881L. Veigl2.5011911113LSep 5 · 05:45D. Gasparovic1.361111113L. Veigl3.003930LJul 31 · 08:44O. Kaderabek2.1061111113L. Veigl1.67119881LJul 31 · 07:15L. Veigl2.20711161032L. Dobias1.611131412113
O. Mezera10
LSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113LSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113LSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:45O. Mezera2.00115811113J. Senk1.7341111862LSep 3 · 16:18O. Mezera2.7531111552J. Sr1.40116911113LSep 3 · 15:45S. Rejent1.531191111113O. Mezera2.3891141342WSep 3 · 14:45J. Sr1.57511111092O. Mezera2.25118812113
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