TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079248
Played Sep 5Finished
Ondrej Mezera
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114511811118116
Jakub Senk
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Senk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Jakub Senk below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-3
Point 81 set 5, 9-3 — our read held Jakub Senk at 54.0%
81 points drawn · the score is 5 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 15–14 Jakub Senk Jakub Senk has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:31What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Senk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-14 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1649 vs Senk 1540
Mezera
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 20% vs Senk 0%
Mezera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 30% vs Senk 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera -2 · Senk -5
Senk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mezera) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senk form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 2.00 / Senk 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mezera)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #13079248
Mezera2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 115 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back32% 46 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back17% 13 of 77
Senk1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 49 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it71% 35 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMezera6wins
AwaySenk4wins
8 of 10 to a deciderMezera leads 6–4, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezera71.4%5 of 7
AwaySenk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera7Senk3n = 10Mezera took 7 of 10
S2Mezera4Senk6n = 10Senk took 6 of 10
S3Mezera2Senk8n = 10Senk took 8 of 10
S4Mezera6Senk2n = 8Mezera took 6 of 8
S5Mezera5Senk3n = 8Mezera took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMezeraSenkM − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.144.3−1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraSenkBasisWin rate · lifetime415 / 818 vs 147 / 28550.7%51.6%415 / 818 vs 147 / 285Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.939.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MezeraMezera 2.00/Senk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mezera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mezera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 17:45O. Mezera—115811113J. Senk—41111862
LAug 23 · 11:15O. Mezera—19760J. Senk—2111113
WAug 22 · 11:15O. Mezera—1111113J. Senk—7670
WAug 19 · 14:15O. Mezera—691112113J. Senk—111181062
LJul 22 · 16:48O. Mezera—1510101192J. Senk—1312123113
WJul 22 · 13:15O. Mezera—1191111123J. Senk—711135102
WJun 29 · 05:15O. Mezera—111544113J. Senk—713111192
LJun 24 · 06:15O. Mezera—61171112J. Senk—119117113
WJun 4 · 16:53O. Mezera—115711113J. Senk—91111972
LJun 4 · 13:15O. Mezera—11117252J. Senk—981111113
O. Mezera10
LSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113LSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113LSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102LSep 3 · 16:18O. Mezera2.7531111552J. Sr1.40116911113LSep 3 · 15:45S. Rejent1.531191111113O. Mezera2.3891141342WSep 3 · 14:45J. Sr1.57511111092O. Mezera2.25118812113
J. Senk10
LSep 5 · 20:13J. Senk2.10411491L. Veigl1.6711711113LSep 5 · 19:45J. Senk2.755820J. Sr1.401111113LSep 5 · 18:15L. Veigl1.801111113J. Senk1.917890LSep 4 · 08:19J. Senk2.107960P. Fencl1.671111113LSep 4 · 07:15P. Fencl1.7311811113J. Senk2.00911781LSep 4 · 06:45J. Senk2.207990T. Liska1.611111113LSep 4 · 05:45J. Senk1.7311860M. Vyskocil2.001311113LAug 23 · 12:53R. Pisa1.7311119113J. Senk2.00571191WAug 23 · 11:15O. Mezera2.2019760J. Senk1.612111113WAug 23 · 10:45J. Senk2.5011116113M. Kocvara1.50781131
Upcoming Matches
O. Mezera
J. Senk
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